NBA · TotalMarket MovementKickoff Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ETMarket Move: Under 222.5 → 219.5 (-3.0 pts)

Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Total Odds, Line Movement & Market Release (Nov 11)

Prices as of Wed, Nov 11, 7:06 PM ET.

By WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. · NJ DGE Vendor #0096475

Released Wed, Nov 11, 1:28 AM ET · Updated Wed, Nov 11, 6:09 PM ET

Desk Status: No Release · Market Movement Only
Current Consensus across 44 books: 219.5 (29 consensus books · 44 tracked)
Market Move: 222.5 to 219.5 (3.0 pts toward Under)
Lane closing-line timing: Ahead: 2 · At close: 0 · Behind: 1 (3 measured)

Market-Implied Projection (Vig-Free Consensus)

Implied Win Probability: GSW 30.7% · HOU 69.3%
Consensus Spread: HOU -6.5
Consensus Total: 219.5
Market-Implied Score: GSW 106.5 – HOU 113

Market Brief: GSW @ HOU Total

Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Total: vig-free consensus stands at Over 219.5 +100 / Under 219.5 -100 across 29 consensus sportsbooks (44 total books tracked as of Wed, Nov 11, 7:06 PM ET). Best price per side: Over 219.5 -105 at Caesars; Under 220.5 -115 at FanDuel.

Since open (Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET), the line moved from 222.5 to 219.5 toward Under (3.0 pts) across 46 sportsbooks. WAGERBIRD has no release on this market; this page tracks the pre-kickoff consensus movement (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET).

What is the GSW @ HOU total consensus line and best price per side?

How has the GSW @ HOU total moved from open to current?

Since open (Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET), the line moved from 222.5 to 219.5 toward Under (3.0 pts) across 46 sportsbooks.

What is the locked release status for GSW @ HOU total?

WAGERBIRD has no release on this market; this page tracks the pre-kickoff consensus movement (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET).

Pre-Game Market Telemetry Video: GSW @ HOU

Why is the GSW @ HOU total moving?

Wed, Nov 11, 1:25 AM ETMarket line moved 1.0 pt toward Under across 12 tracked sportsbooks.
Wed, Nov 11, 7:35 AM ETMarket line moved 1.0 pt toward Over across 15 tracked sportsbooks.
Wed, Nov 11, 9:16 AM ETMarket line moved 2.0 pts toward Under across 46 tracked sportsbooks.

Over

Vig-free consensus 219.5 +100 (50% across 29 books)

Best price: 219.5 -105 at Caesars

Under

Vig-free consensus 219.5 -100 (50% across 29 books)

Best price: 220.5 -115 at FanDuel

GSW @ HOU Total Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Sportsbook	Over	Under	Updated (ET)	Execution
BetMGM	220.5-110	220.5-118	Wed, Nov 11, 7:06 PM ET	BetMGM
Caesars	219.5-105	219.5-115	Wed, Nov 11, 7:03 PM ET	Caesars
DraftKings	219.5-111	219.5-109	Wed, Nov 11, 7:06 PM ET	DraftKings
FanDuel	220.5-105	220.5-115	Wed, Nov 11, 7:05 PM ET	FanDuel
Fanatics	219.5-110	219.5-110	Wed, Nov 11, 7:05 PM ET	Fanatics
ProphetX	220.5+110	220.5-115	Wed, Nov 11, 7:05 PM ET	ProphetX

Full market: 44 sportsbooks, consensus 219.5. Links shown for licensed books we work with.

Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Market Movement Analysis: GSW @ HOU Total

The Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets total opened at 222.5 on WAGERBIRD's per-book price tape (first recorded Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET) and currently sits at 219.5 across 46 tracked sportsbooks, representing a net move of 3.0 pts, with net market movement toward Under. Scheduled kickoff is Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Wed, Nov 11, 7:06 PM ET.

At Wed, Nov 11, 1:25 AM ET, 12 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward Under by a median of 1.0 pt. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets total.

At Wed, Nov 11, 7:35 AM ET, 15 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward Over by a median of 1.0 pt. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets total.

As of Wed, Nov 11, 9:16 AM ET, vig-free implied probability has shifted +5.1% toward Under across 46 tracked sportsbooks, accompanied by a 2.0 pts median line adjustment. Sustained directional repricing across the consensus board highlights ongoing market adjustment ahead of kickoff.

Across the 44 sportsbooks currently quoting the Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets total, the top-to-bottom market spread is 1.0 pt, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.

Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 29-book consensus prices Over at 219.5 +100 (50.0% vig-free probability) and Under at 219.5 -100 (50.0% vig-free probability).

Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: Over 219.5 -105 at Caesars; Under 220.5 -115 at FanDuel.

In the NBA game totals betting lane, every WAGERBIRD release is settled on the final score. Closing Line Value (CLV) against the release book's closing line: Ahead of close: 2 · At the close: 0 · Behind close: 1 (3 measured through 2026-11-10). Every historical settled release can be verified in the downloadable CSV audit log below.

NBA Game Totals Closing Line Value (CLV)

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Lane Closing Line Value (CLV): 66.7% of moved lines ahead of close (2 Ahead of close · 0 At the close · 1 Behind close) · Oct 27–Nov 10

Window	Ahead	At close	Behind	Measured
Season to date	2	0	1	3
Last 30 days	2	0	1	3

Every release is settled on the final score. Closing-line timing compares each release's line and price with the pre-kickoff closing number at the sportsbook where it was posted; it measures entry timing, not the result (settled releases through 2026-11-10). Of releases where the line moved, 67% finished ahead of the close.

Preview Live Widget

Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (Total) attributed to WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):

<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nba/golden-state-warriors-at-houston-rockets-total-2026-11-11-34782" title="Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets Total Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WAGERBIRD" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nba/golden-state-warriors-at-houston-rockets-total-2026-11-11-34782">GSW @ HOU Total Vig-Free Odds &amp; Implied Probability</a> by WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>

WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftGSW @ HOU · Points

GSW @ HOU · Golden State Warriors WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Golden State Warriors's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

GSW Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 4 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-16.9 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 89.6 vs. 106.5 Posted Team Total)

7 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

Core-6 Sum	Core-6 Share	Implied Total	Posted Total	Reconciliation Gap
83.0	92.6%	89.6	106.5 (-108)	-16.9

Compare GSW Team Total Partner Quotes:

FanDuel 107.5 (O -105)DraftKings 106.5 (O -108)BetMGM 106.5 (O -120)Caesars 106.5 (O -120)

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	6G Trend	Outcome Tag
#1 GSW · Prev 27.5 (-1.0)	26.5	32.1%	24.9%(-7.2% vs Hist)	+2.0		Team Tide Shift

Golden State Warriors (GSW)Team Tide Shift

-16.9 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 89.6 vs. 106.5 Posted Team Total)

Houston Rockets (HOU)Team Tide Shift

-4.9 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 108.6 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.

WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftGSW @ HOU · Points

GSW @ HOU · Houston Rockets WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Houston Rockets's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

HOU Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 3 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-4.9 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 108.6 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)

7 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

NBA Player Props · vs. close: 96 Ahead / 12 At close / 42 BehindThrough Nov 10 ET

Released Player Props & Closing-Line Timing (96 Ahead, 12 At close, 42 Behind)

All NBA Player Props →Audit CSV

GSW @ HOU · HOU · Pts + Reb + AstLocked Release · Opens at the Final

Fred VanVleet · Pts + Reb + Ast

Posted Line: Locked (19.5)
Fair Line: —
Book: FanDuel (-113)

Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

GSW @ HOU · HOU · AssistsLocked Release · Opens at the Final

Posted Line: Locked (6.5)
Fair Line: —
Book: DraftKings (-110)

Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

GSW @ HOU · HOU · AssistsLocked Release · Opens at the Final

Posted Line: Locked (1.5)
Fair Line: —
Book: DraftKings (-117)

Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

GSW @ HOU · GSW · PointsLocked Release · Opens at the Final

Posted Line: Locked (26.5)
Fair Line: —
Book: ProphetX (+103)

Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	Outcome Tag
#1 Kevin Durant HOU · Prev 21.5 (0.0)	21.5	17.5%	18.9%(+1.4% vs Hist)	-1.0	Steady Share
#2 HOU · Prev 20.5 (-1.0)	19.5	18.1%	17.2%(-0.9% vs Hist)	+1.0	Team Tide Shift
#3 HOU · Prev 15.5 (0.0)	15.5	10.7%	13.7%(+3.0% vs Hist)	-1.0	Steady Share
#4 HOU · Prev 15.5 (-1.0)	14.5	15.6%	12.8%(-2.8% vs Hist)	0.0	Team Tide Shift
#5 HOU · Prev 11.5 (0.0)	11.5	13.8%	10.1%(-3.7% vs Hist)	-1.0	Steady Share
#6 HOU · Prev 9.5 (-1.0)	8.5	8.1%	7.5%(-0.6% vs Hist)	-2.0	Team Tide Shift

Market-Implied Projection (Vig-Free Consensus)

Market Brief: GSW @ HOU Total

What is the GSW @ HOU total consensus line and best price per side?

How has the GSW @ HOU total moved from open to current?

What is the locked release status for GSW @ HOU total?

Pre-Game Market Telemetry Video: GSW @ HOU

Why is the GSW @ HOU total moving?

Vig-free consensus and best partner price

GSW @ HOU Total Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Market Movement Analysis: GSW @ HOU Total

NBA Game Totals Closing Line Value (CLV)

Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)

GSW @ HOU · Golden State Warriors WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

GSW @ HOU · Houston Rockets WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & Closing-Line Timing (96 Ahead, 12 At close, 42 Behind)

Fred VanVleet · Pts + Reb + Ast

GSW @ HOU · Golden State Warriors WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

GSW @ HOU · Houston Rockets WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & Closing-Line Timing (96 Ahead, 12 At close, 42 Behind)

Fred VanVleet · Pts + Reb + Ast