Dallas at Green Bay
Why it’s on the board
One of these teams has allowed 168.4 rushing yards per game and gave up 241 in a single game this season. The other side's quarterback has completed 47 of 61 passes across his last two starts.
See the pick. See why.
Every pick comes with a full write-up: why we like it and how it rates.
This is what our picks look like.
1The pick
Under 20.5
-110 · 3 units
58Signal
strength
strength
2The why
Cleveland's protection problem against Baltimore's restored secondary, combined with Baltimore's ability to lean on Henry and shorter throws, points to a first half without a sustained scoring exchange.
A Jackson return brings a higher modeled first-half mean than a Huntley start, increasing the scoring ceiling. Explosive plays or short fields can produce points quickly and bypass the protection-and-secondary matchup that anchors the under. An early score could prompt a quicker exchange instead of Baltimore working through Henry and shorter throws. Cleveland could also convert early chances and push the half above 20.5 despite the 17.975 projection.
3The result
Win
Final · BAL 10 · CLE 13
Units+2.7 units
Released at20.5, -110
Closed, same book19.5, +105
Against the closeBeat it
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1Markets
Odds.
Every book. Pre‑game and in‑game.
Before kickoff, Indianapolis was +6.5 at FanDuel and +5.5 at six others on the same screen. In the fourth quarter of Washington at Dallas, the number went from +16.5 to +10.5 in 2:18 of game clock. The Terminal prices both, and boxes the best number on each side.
See the odds screenPre-gameLive in-game
IND @ KCSun 8:20 PM ET · Spread
| Book | IND | KC |
|---|---|---|
| OPEN | +6.5 -105 | -6.5 -116 |
| CNS | +6 -112 | -6 -108 |
| MOVE | +6.5 → +6 | -6.5 → -6 |
| FDFanDuel | +6.5 -122 | -6.5 +100 |
| DKDraftKings | +6 -112 | -6 -108 |
| MGMBetMGM | +6 -105 | -6 -105 |
| CZRCaesars | +5.5 -107 | -5.5 -113 |
| FANFanatics | +5.5 +105 | -5.5 -125 |
| B365bet365 | +5.5 -105 | -5.5 -115 |
| KALKalshi | +5.5 -103 | -5.5 -116 |
| POLYPolymarket | +5.5 +100 | -5.5 -104 |
| PXProphetX | +5.5 +100 | -5.5 -107 |
| PINRef | +6 -116 | -6 +106 |
Best is per side across the books shown
2Models
Signal strength.
One number does three jobs.
Signal strength is one number. It tells you how strong the pick is, what it costs to unlock, and how big to play it.
80GB @ NYJ · 1H TotalUnder 21.5 -102
Strength80
How strong the signal is. When there is no edge, the board says so.
Price80 pts
The strength is the price to unlock the pick, in Points. Stronger picks cost more.
Size4U
Signal strength sets the size of the play.
GEM96–100
B376–95
B250–75
B125–49
GEM is the Gravity Edge Model. Its picks, our strongest, unlock with GEMs instead of Points.
3Research
Research.
Every pick argues against itself.
Unlock a pick and you get the case for it and the case against it. This is the Houston row from the board.
- The numbersThe open, the line now, our number and the projection
- DriversWhat moves the pick, each with its evidence
- Red TeamThe case against the play, in plain words
- ThresholdThe margin between the projection and the line, drawn to scale
The Brief · CIN @ HOU· 1st halfSun 1:00 PM ET · NRG Stadium
HOU U10.5 -114
STR60Units3UBandB2
OPENu12.5 (+100)
NOWu10.5 (-115)
OUR NUMBERu10.5 (-114)
PROJECTION10.0
Two confirmed absences that directly attack Houston's first-half scoring ceiling.
Nico Collins outFundamental
WK1 · 7 REC · 75 YDS · 1 TD · 72% SNAPS
Collins led Houston’s offense in Week 1 and caught the score that made it 24-21 at halftime against Buffalo. He is the primary receiving threat Stroud targeted in contested situations and in the red zone.
Ed Ingram outFundamental
WK1 · 79 OF 79 OFFENSIVE SNAPS
Ingram played every offensive snap in Week 1. Losing an every-snap starting guard changes the interior of the line on both run and pass blocking.
The number is not settledTechnical
12 MOVES · 10 IN FINAL 2½ HRS · 1 BOOK EACH
The total opened at 12.5 and has flapped between 10.5 and 11.5 all morning, almost every move on a single book. The 10.5 is available rather than confirmed, and it is the side of the flap that pays.
Red TeamThe case against this play
Houston scored 21 first-half points against Buffalo and went 3-for-3 in the red zone. That result was built on Collins’ receiving and Ingram’s blocking, and both are absent here.
Threshold · margin between projection and line, in points
Proj 10.0Line 10.5Was 11.5
9.512.5
Cashes HOU under 10.5 · push impossible on the half4System
System picks.
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Every sport runs its own calibrated signal system. Every signal system produces strength-rated picks, sized in units.
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Build your system5Data
Scores.
Every game live. Every pick graded.
Live scores on every game, from the same feed we price from. Every sport is on the board whenever it is in season, and every released pick is graded against the close.
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Closing line valueThrough Sat, Oct 17 · updated daily
| Sport | Window | Showed CLV | Picks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFB | Last 7 days | 66% | 47 of 71 | |
| NHL | Last 30 days | 60% | 84 of 139 | |
| MLB | Last 30 days | 57% | 110 of 194 | |
| WNBA | Last 30 days | 57% | 13 of 23 | |
| NFL | Last 7 days | 52% | 14 of 27 | |
| SOCCER | Last 7 days | 45% | 30 of 67 |
A pick shows closing line value when the book we released it at closed at a worse price or a worse line for the bettor than the one we released. Measured at that book, every released pick with a closing price there counts.
$Rates
The price list.
Get in for $39.
1Start here
Starter
$39
600Points
0GEMs
9 picks at strength 65.
Get in for $392More of the board
Trader
$79
1,400Points
3GEMs
21 picks at strength 65, plus 3 GEM picks.
Get Trader3The most per dollar
Pro
$149
3,000Points
10GEMs
46 picks at strength 65, plus 10 GEM picks.
Get Pro4Own a sport for the season
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// Questions
Fair questions.
Is this a picks service?
Yes, and a lot more. The picks are in it: every one carries a signal strength, is sized in units, and comes with a Brief that makes the case for it and the case against it. Around the picks is the Terminal: live scores, odds from every sportsbook and prediction market side by side, and the research to check any call yourself.
How do I get in?
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How far do Points go?
A pick costs its signal strength in Points: a 65 costs 65. Starter’s 600 Points unlock 9 picks at 65, Trader’s 1,400 unlock 21, and Pro’s 3,000 unlock 46.
What is a GEM?
GEM stands for Gravity Edge Model. Its picks are our strongest. They sit at the top of the board and unlock with GEMs instead of Points. Trader comes with 3 and Pro with 10.
What do Systems and the Annual License include?
A System is one sector of the board, or one market type or time frame inside it, for its season: your Terminal login and every pick in it. A whole Core sector lists at $1,995 and steps down every Monday to $795. The Annual License is every System in every sector for 12 months, plus the full Terminal, 30,000 Points and 250 GEMs each quarter: $21,440, one payment, set up on a call. Systems you have bought this season credit toward it.
Can I pay as I go?
Yes. That is how the Terminal works. Points unlock single picks in any sport, any time, and GEMs unlock Gravity Edge Model picks. Add more whenever you want. Most people start with Starter, $39.
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WagerBird is the research and the platform. The sportsbook is where you bet. You place every bet at the sportsbook you choose, and the Terminal shows you which one has the best price. WagerBird does not take bets or hold customer funds.
What sports do you cover?
Every sport in season: the NFL, college football, the CFL, MLB, the NBA, college basketball, the NHL, soccer, the WNBA, tennis, golf and MMA. Each one is on the board whenever it is in season.
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WagerVision is the Terminal’s in-game coverage. Once a game starts, live money lines, spreads and totals stay scored in the same view you used before kickoff.
Where do the picks come from?
From the WagerBird model, built in-house on four pillars: statistical modeling, WagerTrend, situational reads and bookmaker psychology. The same model scores every pick on the board, every pick carries its Brief, and the method is published.
Does anything renew?
Starter, Trader and Pro are one payment and never renew. A System runs for its season. The Annual License runs for 12 months.
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