Alperen Sengun (NBA) Posted Points Line Trajectory & CLV Record
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 7), Alperen Sengun's posted points line has held net flat at 19.5.
6-Game Posted Points Ledger (Alperen Sengun)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ ATL | 19.5 (-106) | — | 17 | Under | |
| ATL @ HOU | 19.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 29 | Over | |
| OKC @ HOU | 18.5 (-113) | -1.0 | 16 | Under | |
| BOS @ HOU | 17.5 (-111) | -1.0 | 26 | Over | |
| MIN @ HOU | 19.5 (-113) | +2.0 | 17 | Under | |
| HOU @ PHX | 19.5 (+100) | 0.0 | — | Upcoming |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Alperen Sengun Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +1.5 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
- Window Open Line
- 19.5
- Current Posted Line
- 19.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 21.0
- Actual Output Delta
- +1.5
- Modeled Fair Value
- —
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ ATL | 19.5 | — | 17 | -2.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs ATL | 19.5 | 0.0 | 29 | +9.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs OKC | 18.5 | -1.0 | 16 | -2.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs BOS | 17.5 | -1.0 | 26 | +8.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs MIN | 19.5 | +2.0 | 17 | -2.5 |
| Nov 7 · @ PHX | 19.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Alperen Sengun Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 1 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Alperen Sengun prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | MIN @ HOU | Points | Over 19.5 (-109) · Caesars | 19.5 | 17 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 2 | BOS @ HOU | Points | Over 17.5 (-121) · DraftKings | 17.5 | 26 | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 23 | HOU @ SAS | Points | Over 17.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 17.5 | 29 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Alperen Sengun Prop Write-Ups
Sengun's shot volume and Houston's depleted center depth support the workload needed to reach twenty points.
Counter-Case: Gobert can hold his ground without help and push Sengun toward contested finishes. Early fouls or repeated kick-outs to shooters can replace the shot attempts needed to reach twenty points.
Sengun's established shot and free-throw volume can support a normal scoring night without repeating his early-season peak.
Counter-Case: Renewed back discomfort or early fouls could shorten Sengun's night. Boston can pressure his post touches and make passing the better option. A restrained Houston scoring night leaves less room for missed interior attempts.
Sengun's established shot volume supports reaching eighteen points without repeating his opening-game shooting efficiency.
Counter-Case: San Antonio can use Wembanyama's length to force Sengun away from clean interior finishes and toward passes. Durant and Smith can take a larger share of Houston's shots, leaving Sengun short despite a competitive game.
Alperen Sengun WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |