NBA · MoneylineMarket MovementKickoff Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ETMarket Move: HOU (+4.1% implied prob)

Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Moneyline Odds, Line Movement & Market Release (Nov 11)

Prices as of Wed, Nov 11, 7:05 PM ET.

By WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. · NJ DGE Vendor #0096475

Released Wed, Nov 11, 12:24 AM ET · Updated Wed, Nov 11, 1:55 PM ET

Desk Status: No Release · Market Movement Only
Current Consensus across 56 books: GSW +225 (56 consensus books · 56 tracked)
Market Move: HOU 68.5% to 72.6% (4.1% implied probability toward HOU)
Lane closing-line timing: Ahead: 3 · At close: 0 · Behind: 1 (4 measured)

Market-Implied Projection (Vig-Free Consensus)

Implied Win Probability: GSW 30.7% · HOU 69.3%
Consensus Spread: HOU -6.5
Consensus Total: 219.5
Market-Implied Score: GSW 106.5 – HOU 113

Market Brief: GSW @ HOU Moneyline

Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Moneyline: vig-free consensus stands at GSW +225 / HOU -225 across 56 consensus sportsbooks (56 total books tracked as of Wed, Nov 11, 7:05 PM ET). Best price per side: GSW +225 at BetMGM; HOU -230 at ProphetX.

Since open (Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET), implied probability moved from 68.5% to 72.6% toward HOU (4.1% implied probability) across 56 sportsbooks. WAGERBIRD has no release on this market; this page tracks the pre-kickoff consensus movement (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET).

What is the GSW @ HOU moneyline consensus line and best price per side?

How has the GSW @ HOU moneyline moved from open to current?

Since open (Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET), implied probability moved from 68.5% to 72.6% toward HOU (4.1% implied probability) across 56 sportsbooks.

What is the locked release status for GSW @ HOU moneyline?

WAGERBIRD has no release on this market; this page tracks the pre-kickoff consensus movement (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET).

Pre-Game Market Telemetry Video: GSW @ HOU

Why is the GSW @ HOU moneyline moving?

Wed, Nov 11, 12:22 AM ETMarket consensus updated (2.4% implied probability) toward HOU across 15 tracked sportsbooks.
Wed, Nov 11, 1:49 PM ETMarket consensus updated (2.1% implied probability) toward HOU across 14 tracked sportsbooks.

GSW

Vig-free consensus +225 (30.7% across 56 books)

Best price: +225 at BetMGM

HOU

Vig-free consensus -225 (69.3% across 56 books)

Best price: -230 at ProphetX

GSW @ HOU Moneyline Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Sportsbook	GSW	HOU	Updated (ET)	Execution
BetMGM	+225	-285	Wed, Nov 11, 7:03 PM ET	BetMGM
Caesars	+215	-267	Wed, Nov 11, 7:03 PM ET	Caesars
DraftKings	+217	-264	Wed, Nov 11, 7:04 PM ET	DraftKings
FanDuel	+205	-250	Wed, Nov 11, 7:02 PM ET	FanDuel
Fanatics	+220	-275	Wed, Nov 11, 7:03 PM ET	Fanatics
ProphetX	+225	-230	Wed, Nov 11, 7:03 PM ET	ProphetX

Full market: 56 sportsbooks, consensus GSW +225. Links shown for licensed books we work with.

Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Market Movement Analysis: GSW @ HOU Moneyline

The Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets moneyline opened at 68.5% implied probability for HOU on WAGERBIRD's per-book price tape (first recorded Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET) and currently sits at 72.6% implied probability for HOU across 56 tracked sportsbooks, representing a net move of 4.1% implied probability, with net market movement toward HOU. Scheduled kickoff is Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Wed, Nov 11, 7:05 PM ET.

At Wed, Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET, 15 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward HOU by a median of 2.4% implied probability. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets moneyline.

At Wed, Nov 11, 1:49 PM ET, 14 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward HOU by a median of 2.1% implied probability. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets moneyline.

Across the 56 sportsbooks currently quoting the Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets moneyline, the top-to-bottom market spread is 5.7% implied probability, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.

Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 56-book consensus prices GSW at +225 (30.7% vig-free probability) and HOU at -225 (69.3% vig-free probability).

Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: GSW +225 at BetMGM; HOU -230 at ProphetX.

In the NBA moneylines betting lane, every WAGERBIRD release is settled on the final score. Closing Line Value (CLV) against the release book's closing line: Ahead of close: 3 · At the close: 0 · Behind close: 1 (4 measured through 2026-11-10). Every historical settled release can be verified in the downloadable CSV audit log below.

NBA Moneylines Closing Line Value (CLV)

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Lane Closing Line Value (CLV): 75.0% of moved lines ahead of close (3 Ahead of close · 0 At the close · 1 Behind close) · Oct 30–Nov 9

Window	Ahead	At close	Behind	Measured
Season to date	3	0	1	4
Last 30 days	3	0	1	4

Every release is settled on the final score. Closing-line timing compares each release's line and price with the pre-kickoff closing number at the sportsbook where it was posted; it measures entry timing, not the result (settled releases through 2026-11-10). Of releases where the line moved, 75% finished ahead of the close.

Preview Live Widget

Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets (Moneyline) attributed to WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):

<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nba/golden-state-warriors-at-houston-rockets-moneyline-2026-11-11-34782" title="Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets Moneyline Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WAGERBIRD" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nba/golden-state-warriors-at-houston-rockets-moneyline-2026-11-11-34782">GSW @ HOU Moneyline Vig-Free Odds &amp; Implied Probability</a> by WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>

WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftGSW @ HOU · Points

GSW @ HOU · Golden State Warriors WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Golden State Warriors's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

GSW Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 4 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-16.9 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 89.6 vs. 106.5 Posted Team Total)

7 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

Core-6 Sum	Core-6 Share	Implied Total	Posted Total	Reconciliation Gap
83.0	92.6%	89.6	106.5 (-108)	-16.9

Compare GSW Team Total Partner Quotes:

FanDuel 107.5 (O -105)DraftKings 106.5 (O -108)BetMGM 106.5 (O -120)Caesars 106.5 (O -120)

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	6G Trend	Outcome Tag
#1 GSW · Prev 27.5 (-1.0)	26.5	32.1%	24.9%(-7.2% vs Hist)	+2.0		Team Tide Shift

Golden State Warriors (GSW)Team Tide Shift

-16.9 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 89.6 vs. 106.5 Posted Team Total)

Houston Rockets (HOU)Team Tide Shift

-4.9 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 108.6 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.

WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftGSW @ HOU · Points

GSW @ HOU · Houston Rockets WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Houston Rockets's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

HOU Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 3 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-4.9 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 108.6 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)

7 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

NBA Player Props · vs. close: 96 Ahead / 12 At close / 42 BehindThrough Nov 10 ET

Released Player Props & Closing-Line Timing (96 Ahead, 12 At close, 42 Behind)

All NBA Player Props →Audit CSV

GSW @ HOU · HOU · Pts + Reb + AstLocked Release · Opens at the Final

Fred VanVleet · Pts + Reb + Ast

Posted Line: Locked (19.5)
Fair Line: —
Book: FanDuel (-113)

Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

GSW @ HOU · HOU · AssistsLocked Release · Opens at the Final

Posted Line: Locked (6.5)
Fair Line: —
Book: DraftKings (-110)

Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

GSW @ HOU · HOU · AssistsLocked Release · Opens at the Final

Posted Line: Locked (1.5)
Fair Line: —
Book: DraftKings (-117)

Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

GSW @ HOU · GSW · PointsLocked Release · Opens at the Final

Posted Line: Locked (26.5)
Fair Line: —
Book: ProphetX (+103)

Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	Outcome Tag
#1 Kevin Durant HOU · Prev 21.5 (0.0)	21.5	17.5%	18.9%(+1.4% vs Hist)	-1.0	Steady Share
#2 HOU · Prev 20.5 (-1.0)	19.5	18.1%	17.2%(-0.9% vs Hist)	+1.0	Team Tide Shift
#3 HOU · Prev 15.5 (0.0)	15.5	10.7%	13.7%(+3.0% vs Hist)	-1.0	Steady Share
#4 HOU · Prev 15.5 (-1.0)	14.5	15.6%	12.8%(-2.8% vs Hist)	0.0	Team Tide Shift
#5 HOU · Prev 11.5 (0.0)	11.5	13.8%	10.1%(-3.7% vs Hist)	-1.0	Steady Share
#6 HOU · Prev 9.5 (-1.0)	8.5	8.1%	7.5%(-0.6% vs Hist)	-2.0	Team Tide Shift

Market-Implied Projection (Vig-Free Consensus)

Market Brief: GSW @ HOU Moneyline

What is the GSW @ HOU moneyline consensus line and best price per side?

How has the GSW @ HOU moneyline moved from open to current?

What is the locked release status for GSW @ HOU moneyline?

Pre-Game Market Telemetry Video: GSW @ HOU

Why is the GSW @ HOU moneyline moving?

Vig-free consensus and best partner price

GSW @ HOU Moneyline Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Market Movement Analysis: GSW @ HOU Moneyline

NBA Moneylines Closing Line Value (CLV)

Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)

GSW @ HOU · Golden State Warriors WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

GSW @ HOU · Houston Rockets WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & Closing-Line Timing (96 Ahead, 12 At close, 42 Behind)

Fred VanVleet · Pts + Reb + Ast

GSW @ HOU · Golden State Warriors WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

GSW @ HOU · Houston Rockets WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 9:30 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & Closing-Line Timing (96 Ahead, 12 At close, 42 Behind)

Fred VanVleet · Pts + Reb + Ast