NBA · TotalMarket MovementKickoff Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ETMarket Move: Over 227.5 → 230.5 (+3.0 pts)

Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies Total Odds, Line Movement & Market Release (Nov 11)

Prices as of Wed, Nov 11, 6:27 PM ET.

By WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. · NJ DGE Vendor #0096475

Released Wed, Nov 11, 1:20 AM ET · Updated Wed, Nov 11, 4:50 PM ET

Desk Status: No Release · Market Movement Only
Current Consensus across 46 books: 230.5 (31 consensus books · 46 tracked)
Market Move: 227.5 to 230.5 (3.0 pts toward Over)
Lane closing-line timing: Ahead: 2 · At close: 0 · Behind: 1 (3 measured)

Market-Implied Projection (Vig-Free Consensus)

Implied Win Probability: DEN 60.4% · MEM 39.6%
Consensus Spread: MEM +4.5
Consensus Total: 230.5
Market-Implied Score: DEN 117.5 – MEM 113

Market Brief: DEN @ MEM Total

Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies Total: vig-free consensus stands at Over 230.5 +100 / Under 230.5 -100 across 31 consensus sportsbooks (46 total books tracked as of Wed, Nov 11, 6:27 PM ET). Best price per side: Over 230.5 -105 at ProphetX; Under 230.5 +102 at ProphetX.

Since open (Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET), the line moved from 227.5 to 230.5 toward Over (3.0 pts) across 46 sportsbooks. WAGERBIRD has no release on this market; this page tracks the pre-kickoff consensus movement (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET).

What is the DEN @ MEM total consensus line and best price per side?

How has the DEN @ MEM total moved from open to current?

Since open (Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET), the line moved from 227.5 to 230.5 toward Over (3.0 pts) across 46 sportsbooks.

What is the locked release status for DEN @ MEM total?

WAGERBIRD has no release on this market; this page tracks the pre-kickoff consensus movement (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET).

Pre-Game Market Telemetry Video: DEN @ MEM

Why is the DEN @ MEM total moving?

Wed, Nov 11, 1:18 AM ETMarket line moved 1.0 pt toward Over across 12 tracked sportsbooks.
Wed, Nov 11, 6:30 AM ETMarket line moved 2.0 pts toward Over across 38 tracked sportsbooks.
Wed, Nov 11, 7:31 AM ETMarket line moved 1.5 pts toward Over across 20 tracked sportsbooks.

Over

Vig-free consensus 230.5 +100 (50% across 31 books)

Best price: 230.5 -105 at ProphetX

Under

Vig-free consensus 230.5 -100 (50% across 31 books)

Best price: 230.5 +102 at ProphetX

DEN @ MEM Total Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Sportsbook	Over	Under	Updated (ET)	Execution
BetMGM	230.5-110	230.5-110	Wed, Nov 11, 6:26 PM ET	BetMGM
Caesars	230.5-110	230.5-110	Wed, Nov 11, 6:25 PM ET	Caesars
DraftKings	230.5-110	230.5-110	Wed, Nov 11, 6:27 PM ET	DraftKings
FanDuel	230.5-110	230.5-110	Wed, Nov 11, 6:26 PM ET	FanDuel
Fanatics	230.5-110	230.5-110	Wed, Nov 11, 6:26 PM ET	Fanatics
ProphetX	230.5-105	230.5+102	Wed, Nov 11, 6:26 PM ET	ProphetX

Full market: 46 sportsbooks, consensus 230.5. Links shown for licensed books we work with.

Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Market Movement Analysis: DEN @ MEM Total

The Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies total opened at 227.5 on WAGERBIRD's per-book price tape (first recorded Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET) and currently sits at 230.5 across 46 tracked sportsbooks, representing a net move of 3.0 pts, with net market movement toward Over. Scheduled kickoff is Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Wed, Nov 11, 6:27 PM ET.

At Wed, Nov 11, 1:18 AM ET, 12 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward Over by a median of 1.0 pt. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies total.

As of Wed, Nov 11, 6:30 AM ET, vig-free implied probability has shifted +5.1% toward Over across 38 tracked sportsbooks, accompanied by a 2.0 pts median line adjustment. Sustained directional repricing across the consensus board highlights ongoing market adjustment ahead of kickoff.

At Wed, Nov 11, 7:31 AM ET, 20 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward Over by a median of 1.5 pts. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies total.

Across the 46 sportsbooks currently quoting the Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies total, the top-to-bottom market spread is 11.0 pts, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.

Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 31-book consensus prices Over at 230.5 +100 (50.0% vig-free probability) and Under at 230.5 -100 (50.0% vig-free probability).

Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: Over 230.5 -105 at ProphetX; Under 230.5 +102 at ProphetX.

In the NBA game totals betting lane, every WAGERBIRD release is settled on the final score. Closing Line Value (CLV) against the release book's closing line: Ahead of close: 2 · At the close: 0 · Behind close: 1 (3 measured through 2026-11-10). Every historical settled release can be verified in the downloadable CSV audit log below.

NBA Game Totals Closing Line Value (CLV)

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Lane Closing Line Value (CLV): 66.7% of moved lines ahead of close (2 Ahead of close · 0 At the close · 1 Behind close) · Oct 27–Nov 10

Window	Ahead	At close	Behind	Measured
Season to date	2	0	1	3
Last 30 days	2	0	1	3

Every release is settled on the final score. Closing-line timing compares each release's line and price with the pre-kickoff closing number at the sportsbook where it was posted; it measures entry timing, not the result (settled releases through 2026-11-10). Of releases where the line moved, 67% finished ahead of the close.

Preview Live Widget

Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies (Total) attributed to WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):

<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nba/denver-nuggets-at-memphis-grizzlies-total-2026-11-11-34778" title="Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies Total Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WAGERBIRD" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nba/denver-nuggets-at-memphis-grizzlies-total-2026-11-11-34778">DEN @ MEM Total Vig-Free Odds &amp; Implied Probability</a> by WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>

WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftDEN @ MEM · Points

DEN @ MEM · Denver Nuggets WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Denver Nuggets's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

DEN Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 4 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted UpTeam Tide Shift (Bullish): Market Expanding Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-9.3 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 107.7 vs. 117.0 Posted Team Total)

6 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

Core-6 Sum	Core-6 Share	Implied Total	Posted Total	Reconciliation Gap
95.0	88.2%	107.7	117.0 (-105)	-9.3

Compare DEN Team Total Partner Quotes:

FanDuel 117.5 (O -105)DraftKings 117.5 (O -105)BetMGM 116.5 (O -120)Caesars 117.5 (O -110)

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	6G Trend	Outcome Tag
#1 DEN · Prev 24.5 (+1.0)	25.5	21.7%	21.8%(+0.1% vs Hist)	0.0		Team Tide Shift

Denver Nuggets (DEN)Team Tide Shift

-9.3 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 107.7 vs. 117.0 Posted Team Total)

Memphis Grizzlies (MEM)Usage Transfer

-10.6 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 102.9 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.

WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift · Usage TransferDEN @ MEM · Points

DEN @ MEM · Memphis Grizzlies WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Memphis Grizzlies's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

MEM Rotation Mode: Usage TransferUsage Transfer: 1 Core Scorer Up vs. 1 DownInternal Rotation Usage Transfer: Scoring Share Redistributing Inside Core-6 Rotation

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-10.6 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 102.9 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)

6 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

NBA Player Props · vs. close: 96 Ahead / 12 At close / 42 BehindThrough Nov 10 ET

Released Player Props & Closing-Line Timing (96 Ahead, 12 At close, 42 Behind)

All NBA Player Props →Audit CSV

DEN @ MEM · DEN · AssistsLocked Release · Opens at the Final

Jamal Murray · Assists

Posted Line: Locked (6.5)
Fair Line: —
Book: DraftKings (+132)

Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	Outcome Tag
#1 Ty Jerome MEM · Prev 21.5 (0.0)	21.5	22.1%	18.9%(-3.2% vs Hist)	-1.0	Steady Share
#2 MEM · Prev 16.5 (0.0)	16.5	16.7%	14.5%(-2.2% vs Hist)	-1.0	Steady Share
#3 MEM · Prev 13.5 (-1.0)	12.5	11.9%	11.0%(-0.9% vs Hist)	-4.0	Usage Transfer
#4 MEM · Prev 9.5 (+1.0)	10.5	8.3%	9.3%(+1.0% vs Hist)	-3.0	Usage Transfer
#5 MEM · Prev 10.5 (0.0)	10.5	10.6%	9.3%(-1.3% vs Hist)	-2.0	Steady Share
#6 MEM · Prev 9.5 (0.0)	9.5	9.1%	8.4%(-0.7% vs Hist)	+1.0	Steady Share

Market-Implied Projection (Vig-Free Consensus)

Market Brief: DEN @ MEM Total

What is the DEN @ MEM total consensus line and best price per side?

How has the DEN @ MEM total moved from open to current?

What is the locked release status for DEN @ MEM total?

Pre-Game Market Telemetry Video: DEN @ MEM

Why is the DEN @ MEM total moving?

Vig-free consensus and best partner price

DEN @ MEM Total Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Market Movement Analysis: DEN @ MEM Total

NBA Game Totals Closing Line Value (CLV)

Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)

DEN @ MEM · Denver Nuggets WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

DEN @ MEM · Memphis Grizzlies WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & Closing-Line Timing (96 Ahead, 12 At close, 42 Behind)

Jamal Murray · Assists

DEN @ MEM · Denver Nuggets WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

DEN @ MEM · Memphis Grizzlies WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & Closing-Line Timing (96 Ahead, 12 At close, 42 Behind)

Jamal Murray · Assists