NBA · SpreadLocked ReleaseKickoff Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET

Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies Spread Odds, Line Movement & Market Release (Nov 11)

Prices as of Wed, Nov 11, 6:27 PM ET.

By WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. · NJ DGE Vendor #0096475

Released Wed, Nov 11, 1:08 AM ET · Updated Wed, Nov 11, 5:52 PM ET

Release Status: Locked Release · Logged Wed, Nov 11, 5:47 AM ET · Opens at the final
Current Consensus across 39 books: DEN -4.5 (15 consensus books · 39 tracked)
Market Move: MEM +4 to +4 (net flat since open; moved up to 1.0 pt intraday)
Lane closing-line timing: Ahead: 2 · At close: 0 · Behind: 3 (5 measured)

Market-Implied Projection (Vig-Free Consensus)

Implied Win Probability: DEN 60.4% · MEM 39.6%
Consensus Spread: MEM +4.5
Consensus Total: 230.5
Market-Implied Score: DEN 117.5 – MEM 113

Market Brief: DEN @ MEM Spread

Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies Spread: vig-free consensus stands at DEN -4.5 +105 / MEM +4.5 -105 across 15 consensus sportsbooks (39 total books tracked as of Wed, Nov 11, 6:27 PM ET). Best price per side: DEN -3.5 -109 at ProphetX; MEM +4.5 -117 at DraftKings.

The line is unchanged since open (MEM +4) across 43 sportsbooks. WAGERBIRD has a verified locked release on this market (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET); members read it in the Terminal, and the side, price and closing-line grade open on this page at the final.

What is the DEN @ MEM spread consensus line and best price per side?

How has the DEN @ MEM spread moved from open to current?

The line is unchanged since open (MEM +4) across 43 sportsbooks.

What is the locked release status for DEN @ MEM spread?

WAGERBIRD has a verified locked release on this market (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET); members read it in the Terminal, and the side, price and closing-line grade open on this page at the final.

Locked Release

Desk Status: Verified Release Logged (Wed, Nov 11, 5:47 AM ET) · Locked Until Final

Releases below 85: Read with Weekday Pass ($29) or Weekend Pass ($49), or any monthly Alpha Plan · Releases 85–100: Read with monthly points.

Read on WAGERBIRD →

Pre-Game Market Telemetry Video: DEN @ MEM

Why is the DEN @ MEM spread moving?

Wed, Nov 11, 1:05 AM ETMarket line moved 1.0 pt toward MEM across 11 tracked sportsbooks.
Wed, Nov 11, 9:08 AM ETMarket line moved 0.5 pts toward MEM across 11 tracked sportsbooks.

DEN

Vig-free consensus -4.5 +105 (48.8% across 15 books)

Best price: -3.5 -109 at ProphetX

MEM

Vig-free consensus +4.5 -105 (51.3% across 15 books)

Best price: +4.5 -117 at DraftKings

DEN @ MEM Spread Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Sportsbook	DEN	MEM	Updated (ET)	Execution
BetMGM	-3.5-115	+3.5-105	Wed, Nov 11, 6:25 PM ET	BetMGM
Caesars	-4-110	+4-110	Wed, Nov 11, 6:25 PM ET	Caesars
DraftKings	-4.5-104	+4.5-117	Wed, Nov 11, 6:25 PM ET	DraftKings
FanDuel	-3.5-115	+3.5-105	Wed, Nov 11, 6:25 PM ET	FanDuel
Fanatics	-4-110	+4-110	Wed, Nov 11, 6:25 PM ET	Fanatics
ProphetX	-3.5-109	+3.5+106	Wed, Nov 11, 6:25 PM ET	ProphetX

Full market: 39 sportsbooks, consensus DEN -4.5. Links shown for licensed books we work with.

Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Market Movement Summary: DEN @ MEM Spread

Across 39 tracked sportsbooks, the DEN @ MEM spread moved from an opening number of MEM +4 to MEM +4.

Best current licensed partner quotes: DEN -3.5 -109 at ProphetX; MEM +4.5 -117 at DraftKings. Quoting books currently span 1.0 pt across the market.

NBA Spreads Closing Line Value (CLV)

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Lane Closing Line Value (CLV): 40.0% of moved lines ahead of close (2 Ahead of close · 0 At the close · 3 Behind close) · Oct 22–Nov 6

Window	Ahead	At close	Behind	Measured
Season to date	2	0	3	5
Last 30 days	2	0	3	5

Every release is settled on the final score. Closing-line timing compares each release's line and price with the pre-kickoff closing number at the sportsbook where it was posted; it measures entry timing, not the result (settled releases through 2026-11-10). Of releases where the line moved, 40% finished ahead of the close.

Preview Live Widget

Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies (Spread) attributed to WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):

<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nba/denver-nuggets-at-memphis-grizzlies-spread-2026-11-11-34778" title="Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies Spread Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WAGERBIRD" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nba/denver-nuggets-at-memphis-grizzlies-spread-2026-11-11-34778">DEN @ MEM Spread Vig-Free Odds &amp; Implied Probability</a> by WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>

WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftDEN @ MEM · Points

DEN @ MEM · Denver Nuggets WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Denver Nuggets's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

DEN Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 4 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted UpTeam Tide Shift (Bullish): Market Expanding Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-9.3 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 107.7 vs. 117.0 Posted Team Total)

6 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

Core-6 Sum	Core-6 Share	Implied Total	Posted Total	Reconciliation Gap
95.0	88.2%	107.7	117.0 (-105)	-9.3

Compare DEN Team Total Partner Quotes:

FanDuel 117.5 (O -105)DraftKings 117.5 (O -105)BetMGM 116.5 (O -120)Caesars 117.5 (O -110)

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	6G Trend	Outcome Tag
#1 DEN · Prev 24.5 (+1.0)	25.5	21.7%	21.8%(+0.1% vs Hist)	0.0		Team Tide Shift

Denver Nuggets (DEN)Team Tide Shift

-9.3 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 107.7 vs. 117.0 Posted Team Total)

Memphis Grizzlies (MEM)Usage Transfer

-10.6 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 102.9 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.

WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift · Usage TransferDEN @ MEM · Points

DEN @ MEM · Memphis Grizzlies WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Memphis Grizzlies's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

MEM Rotation Mode: Usage TransferUsage Transfer: 1 Core Scorer Up vs. 1 DownInternal Rotation Usage Transfer: Scoring Share Redistributing Inside Core-6 Rotation

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-10.6 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 102.9 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)

6 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

NBA Player Props · vs. close: 96 Ahead / 12 At close / 42 BehindThrough Nov 10 ET

Released Player Props & Closing-Line Timing (96 Ahead, 12 At close, 42 Behind)

All NBA Player Props →Audit CSV

DEN @ MEM · DEN · AssistsLocked Release · Opens at the Final

Jamal Murray · Assists

Posted Line: Locked (6.5)
Fair Line: —
Book: DraftKings (+132)

Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	Outcome Tag
#1 Ty Jerome MEM · Prev 21.5 (0.0)	21.5	22.1%	18.9%(-3.2% vs Hist)	-1.0	Steady Share
#2 MEM · Prev 16.5 (0.0)	16.5	16.7%	14.5%(-2.2% vs Hist)	-1.0	Steady Share
#3 MEM · Prev 13.5 (-1.0)	12.5	11.9%	11.0%(-0.9% vs Hist)	-4.0	Usage Transfer
#4 MEM · Prev 9.5 (+1.0)	10.5	8.3%	9.3%(+1.0% vs Hist)	-3.0	Usage Transfer
#5 MEM · Prev 10.5 (0.0)	10.5	10.6%	9.3%(-1.3% vs Hist)	-2.0	Steady Share
#6 MEM · Prev 9.5 (0.0)	9.5	9.1%	8.4%(-0.7% vs Hist)	+1.0	Steady Share

Market-Implied Projection (Vig-Free Consensus)

Market Brief: DEN @ MEM Spread

What is the DEN @ MEM spread consensus line and best price per side?

How has the DEN @ MEM spread moved from open to current?

What is the locked release status for DEN @ MEM spread?

Pre-Game Market Telemetry Video: DEN @ MEM

Why is the DEN @ MEM spread moving?

Vig-free consensus and best partner price

DEN @ MEM Spread Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Market Movement Summary: DEN @ MEM Spread

NBA Spreads Closing Line Value (CLV)

Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)

DEN @ MEM · Denver Nuggets WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

DEN @ MEM · Memphis Grizzlies WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & Closing-Line Timing (96 Ahead, 12 At close, 42 Behind)

Jamal Murray · Assists

DEN @ MEM · Denver Nuggets WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

DEN @ MEM · Memphis Grizzlies WAGERBIRD Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & Closing-Line Timing (96 Ahead, 12 At close, 42 Behind)

Jamal Murray · Assists