NBA Player Prop & CLV DossierTeam: DENPosted Line Trajectory: Trending Down (-3.0 over 6 games)

DeMar DeRozan (NBA) Posted Points Line Trajectory & CLV Record

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

NBA Player Props CLV Counts
73 Beat · 11 Tied · 36 Lost
DeMar DeRozan Releases: 0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost

Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game.

Posted Book Line
Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted DeMar DeRozan's posted points line downward in 3 of 5 game-over-game steps from 14.5 to 11.5 (-3.0).15.514.513.512.511.510.514.513.514.512.511.511.5Oct 24NOP @ DENOct 26GSW @ DENOct 28DEN @ NOPOct 30DEN @ PHXNov 2POR @ DENNov 7DEN @ IND

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted DeMar DeRozan's posted points line downward in 3 of 5 game-over-game steps from 14.5 to 11.5 (-3.0).

6-Game Posted Points Ledger (DeMar DeRozan)

America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
NOP @ DEN14.5 (-115)—12Under
GSW @ DEN13.5 (+100)-1.021Over
DEN @ NOP14.5 (-110)+1.06Under
DEN @ PHX12.5 (-120)-2.03Under
POR @ DEN11.5 (+104)-1.09Under
DEN @ IND(Missed 1g)11.5 (-108)0.0—Upcoming

Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Ahead of Production6-Game Window

DeMar DeRozan Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Books adjusted -3.0 vs. -4.3 actual output delta (-1.3 Book Over-Adjustment).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag-1.3Max Single-Game Book Step: -2.0
Window Open Line
14.5
Current Posted Line
11.5
Book Cumulative Step
-3.0
Actual Window Avg
10.2
Actual Output Delta
-4.3
Modeled Fair Value
—
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
DeMar DeRozan Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted Points Line vs Actual Box-Score Output26012Oct 24vs NOP21Oct 26vs GSW6Oct 28@ NOP3Oct 30@ PHX9Nov 2vs PORNov 7@ IND
Game (CT)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Oct 24 · vs NOP14.5—12-2.5
Oct 26 · vs GSW13.5-1.021+7.5
Oct 28 · @ NOP14.5+1.06-8.5
Oct 30 · @ PHX12.5-2.03-9.5
Nov 2 · vs POR11.5-1.09-2.5
Nov 7 · @ IND11.50.0——
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

DeMar DeRozan Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)

0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled DeMar DeRozan prop write-up.

DeMar DeRozan CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt
Date (CT)MatchupMarketRelease QuoteClosing LineActualCLV GradeWrite-Up
Oct 24NOP @ DENPointsOver 14.5 (-117) · polymarket14.512LostRead Write-Up →

Archived Settled DeMar DeRozan Prop Write-Ups

Oct 24 CT · NOP @ DEN · PointsFull Write-Up →

Denver's reserve-unit creation role gives DeRozan enough opportunity to reach the scoring threshold.

Counter-Case: An extended closing run for the starters can remove a late scoring stint for DeRozan. When the reserve unit's touches shift toward other finishers, he may not accumulate enough attempts to reach fifteen points.

DeMar DeRozan WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive

Date (CT)MatchupMarketReleaseCloseActualCLV Grade
Oct 24NOP @ DENPointsOver 14.514.512Lost

NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowBeat CloseTied CloseLost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)731136
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)731136