By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 21 to Nov 2), sportsbooks adjusted Alperen Sengun's posted points line downward in 3 of 5 game-over-game steps from 19.5 to 17.5 (-2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ HOU is 19.6 (-163).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL @ HOU | 19.5 (-105) | — | 23 | Over | |
| HOU @ SAS | 17.5 (-106) | -2.0 | 29 | Over | |
| HOU @ ATL | 19.5 (-106) | +2.0 | 17 | Under | |
| ATL @ HOU | 19.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 29 | Over | |
| OKC @ HOU | 18.5 (-113) | -1.0 | 16 | Under | |
| BOS @ HOU | 17.5 (-111) | -1.0 | 26 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +3.8 vs. -2.0 book step adjustment (+5.8 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs DAL | 19.5 | — | 23 | +3.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ SAS | 17.5 | -2.0 | 29 | +11.5 |
| Oct 24 · @ ATL | 19.5 | +2.0 | 17 | -2.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs ATL | 19.5 | 0.0 | 29 | +9.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs OKC | 18.5 | -1.0 | 16 | -2.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs BOS | 17.5 | -1.0 | 26 | +8.5 |
Sengun's established shot and free-throw volume can support a normal scoring night without repeating his early-season peak.
20.4 PTS · 15.6 FGA · 5.2 FTA — Sengun averaged 20.4 points on 15.6 field-goal attempts and 5.2 free-throw attempts last season. Those opportunities give him scoring routes through both finishing and contact rather than requiring hot perimeter shooting.
33 MIN · 17 FGA · 6 FTA — His latest appearance included 33 minutes, 17 shots and six free-throw attempts despite a 16-point result. Better conversion of that existing workload is enough to improve his scoring without adding possessions.
Renewed back discomfort or early fouls could shorten Sengun's night. Boston can pressure his post touches and make passing the better option. A restrained Houston scoring night leaves less room for missed interior attempts.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ALPEREN SENGUN OVER 17.5 POINTS WITH AT LEAST 18 POINTS; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Houston Rockets's 5 primary contributors.
| Houston Rockets Contributor | Oct 31 vs OKC | Nov 2 vs BOS | Nov 4 vs MIN | Nov 7 @ PHX | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant HOU · Points | 22.5 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 21.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Alperen Sengun HOU · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Amen Thompson HOU · Points | 16.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. HOU · Points | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Fred VanVleet HOU · Points | — | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
1 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Alperen Sengun prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | MIN @ HOU | Points | Over 19.5 (-109) · Caesars | 19.5 | 17 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 2 | BOS @ HOU | Points | Over 17.5 (-121) · DraftKings | 17.5 | 26 | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 23 | HOU @ SAS | Points | Over 17.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 17.5 | 29 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Sengun's shot volume and Houston's depleted center depth support the workload needed to reach twenty points.
Counter-Case: Gobert can hold his ground without help and push Sengun toward contested finishes. Early fouls or repeated kick-outs to shooters can replace the shot attempts needed to reach twenty points.
Sengun's established shot and free-throw volume can support a normal scoring night without repeating his early-season peak.
Counter-Case: Renewed back discomfort or early fouls could shorten Sengun's night. Boston can pressure his post touches and make passing the better option. A restrained Houston scoring night leaves less room for missed interior attempts.
Sengun's established shot volume supports reaching eighteen points without repeating his opening-game shooting efficiency.
Counter-Case: San Antonio can use Wembanyama's length to force Sengun away from clean interior finishes and toward passes. Durant and Smith can take a larger share of Houston's shots, leaving Sengun short despite a competitive game.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |