By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 2), sportsbooks adjusted Kevin Durant's posted assists line downward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 4.5 to 3.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ HOU is 4.1 (-141).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ ATL | 4.5 (+117) | — | 2 | Under | |
| ATL @ HOU | 3.5 (-125) | -1.0 | 3 | Under | |
| HOU @ MIL | 4.5 (+113) | +1.0 | 4 | Under | |
| HOU @ DAL | 3.5 (-130) | -1.0 | 1 | Under | |
| OKC @ HOU | 3.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| BOS @ HOU | 3.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 3 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (-1.0) tracks actual window production (-1.7).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ ATL | 4.5 | — | 2 | -2.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs ATL | 3.5 | -1.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ MIL | 4.5 | +1.0 | 4 | -0.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ DAL | 3.5 | -1.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs OKC | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs BOS | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
Durant's established passing contribution and expected competitive workload provide a credible route to four assists.
4.8 AST · 78 GAMES — Durant averaged 4.8 assists across 78 games last season, compared with 3.2 in the earlier six-game sample this season. His passing contribution does not require an unusually large scoring night.
4 AST · 27 MIN — Durant supplied four assists in only 27 minutes in the latest game. An expected 35-minute workload gives him more possessions to draw help and find a finishing teammate.
More initiation by the guards or the center can leave Durant finishing possessions instead of supplying the final pass. Boston can stay home on shooters and force him to score against single coverage. Missed catch-and-shoot chances would erase otherwise useful passing opportunities.
Settlement Rule: CASHES KEVIN DURANT OVER 3.5 ASSISTS WITH AT LEAST 4 ASSISTS; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Houston Rockets's 5 primary contributors.
| Houston Rockets Contributor | Oct 31 vs OKC | Nov 2 vs BOS | Nov 4 vs MIN | Nov 7 @ PHX | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant HOU · Points | 22.5 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 21.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Alperen Sengun HOU · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Amen Thompson HOU · Points | 16.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. HOU · Points | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Fred VanVleet HOU · Points | — | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Kevin Durant prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BOS @ HOU | Assists | Over 3.5 (+108) · ProphetX | 3.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Durant's established passing contribution and expected competitive workload provide a credible route to four assists.
Counter-Case: More initiation by the guards or the center can leave Durant finishing possessions instead of supplying the final pass. Boston can stay home on shooters and force him to score against single coverage. Missed catch-and-shoot chances would erase otherwise useful passing opportunities.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |