By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 2), Tari Eason's posted rebounds line has held net flat at 5.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ HOU is 6.1 (-147).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ ATL | 5.5 (-125) | — | 3 | Under | |
| ATL @ HOU | 5.5 (+115) | 0.0 | 8 | Over | |
| HOU @ MIL | 6.5 (-115) | +1.0 | 9 | Over | |
| HOU @ DAL | 6.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 13 | Over | |
| OKC @ HOU | 5.5 (-105) | -1.0 | 3 | Under | |
| BOS @ HOU | 5.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 4 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.2 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.2 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ ATL | 5.5 | — | 3 | -2.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs ATL | 5.5 | 0.0 | 8 | +2.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ MIL | 6.5 | +1.0 | 9 | +2.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ DAL | 6.5 | 0.0 | 13 | +6.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs OKC | 5.5 | -1.0 | 3 | -2.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs BOS | 5.5 | 0.0 | 4 | -1.5 |
Eason's sustained rebounding production fits a normal reserve workload without requiring extra scoring usage.
6.3 REB · 25.8 MIN · 60 GAMES — Eason averaged 6.3 rebounds in 25.8 minutes over 60 games last season. That establishes a rebounding route within ordinary reserve minutes rather than requiring a starting assignment.
13 REB / 25 MIN · 3 REB / 19 MIN — His last two games produced 13 rebounds in 25 minutes and three rebounds in 19 minutes. The expected 25-minute workload matters because a longer stint creates more chances to turn his activity into collected boards.
A short reserve stint or foul trouble can leave Eason without enough rebounding possessions. Accurate Boston shooting reduces defensive-board opportunities. Houston's other rebounders can also collect the misses before he reaches them.
Settlement Rule: CASHES TARI EASON OVER 5.5 REBOUNDS WITH AT LEAST 6 REBOUNDS; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Houston Rockets's 5 primary contributors.
| Houston Rockets Contributor | Oct 31 vs OKC | Nov 2 vs BOS | Nov 4 vs MIN | Nov 7 @ PHX | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant HOU · Points | 22.5 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 21.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Alperen Sengun HOU · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Amen Thompson HOU · Points | 16.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. HOU · Points | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Fred VanVleet HOU · Points | — | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Tari Eason prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BOS @ HOU | Rebounds | Over 5.5 (+105) · BetMGM | 5.5 | 4 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Eason's sustained rebounding production fits a normal reserve workload without requiring extra scoring usage.
Counter-Case: A short reserve stint or foul trouble can leave Eason without enough rebounding possessions. Accurate Boston shooting reduces defensive-board opportunities. Houston's other rebounders can also collect the misses before he reaches them.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |