By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 23 to Nov 4), sportsbooks adjusted Alperen Sengun's posted points line upward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 17.5 to 19.5 (+2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for MIN @ HOU is 21.0 (-139).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ SAS | 17.5 (-106) | — | 29 | Over | |
| HOU @ ATL | 19.5 (-106) | +2.0 | 17 | Under | |
| ATL @ HOU | 19.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 29 | Over | |
| OKC @ HOU | 18.5 (-113) | -1.0 | 16 | Under | |
| BOS @ HOU | 17.5 (-111) | -1.0 | 26 | Over | |
| MIN @ HOU | 19.5 (-113) | +2.0 | 17 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +4.8 vs. +2.0 book step adjustment (+2.8 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 · @ SAS | 17.5 | — | 29 | +11.5 |
| Oct 24 · @ ATL | 19.5 | +2.0 | 17 | -2.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs ATL | 19.5 | 0.0 | 29 | +9.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs OKC | 18.5 | -1.0 | 16 | -2.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs BOS | 17.5 | -1.0 | 26 | +8.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs MIN | 19.5 | +2.0 | 17 | -2.5 |
Sengun's shot volume and Houston's depleted center depth support the workload needed to reach twenty points.
15.8 FGA · 6.4 FTA — Sengun's current sample shows 15.8 field-goal attempts and 6.4 free-throw attempts per game. That combination gives him scoring routes through normal possessions and contact rather than requiring exceptional perimeter shooting.
35 PROJECTED MIN · ADAMS OUT — Adams is Out and Capela is Questionable. That center availability supports a 35-minute expectation for Sengun, with room for a normal interior workload even against Gobert.
Gobert can hold his ground without help and push Sengun toward contested finishes. Early fouls or repeated kick-outs to shooters can replace the shot attempts needed to reach twenty points.
Settlement Rule: CASHES SENGUN OVER 19.5 POINTS WITH TWENTY OR MORE POINTS; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Houston Rockets's 5 primary contributors.
| Houston Rockets Contributor | Oct 31 vs OKC | Nov 2 vs BOS | Nov 4 vs MIN | Nov 7 @ PHX | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant HOU · Points | 22.5 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 21.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Alperen Sengun HOU · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 19.5 | 20.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Amen Thompson HOU · Points | 16.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. HOU · Points | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Fred VanVleet HOU · Points | — | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Alperen Sengun prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | MIN @ HOU | Points | Over 19.5 (-109) · Caesars | 19.5 | 17 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 2 | BOS @ HOU | Points | Over 17.5 (-121) · DraftKings | 17.5 | 26 | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 23 | HOU @ SAS | Points | Over 17.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 17.5 | 29 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Sengun's shot volume and Houston's depleted center depth support the workload needed to reach twenty points.
Counter-Case: Gobert can hold his ground without help and push Sengun toward contested finishes. Early fouls or repeated kick-outs to shooters can replace the shot attempts needed to reach twenty points.
Sengun's established shot and free-throw volume can support a normal scoring night without repeating his early-season peak.
Counter-Case: Renewed back discomfort or early fouls could shorten Sengun's night. Boston can pressure his post touches and make passing the better option. A restrained Houston scoring night leaves less room for missed interior attempts.
Sengun's established shot volume supports reaching eighteen points without repeating his opening-game shooting efficiency.
Counter-Case: San Antonio can use Wembanyama's length to force Sengun away from clean interior finishes and toward passes. Durant and Smith can take a larger share of Houston's shots, leaving Sengun short despite a competitive game.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |