By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 23), sportsbooks adjusted Alperen Sengun's posted points line downward in 1 of 1 game-over-game steps from 19.5 to 17.5 (-2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for HOU @ SAS is 19.6 (-163).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL @ HOU | 19.5 (-105) | — | 23 | Over | |
| HOU @ SAS | 17.5 (-106) | -2.0 | 29 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +6.5 vs. -2.0 book step adjustment (+8.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs DAL | 19.5 | — | 23 | +3.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ SAS | 17.5 | -2.0 | 29 | +11.5 |
Sengun's established shot volume supports reaching eighteen points without repeating his opening-game shooting efficiency.
20.4 PPG · 15.6 FGA · 72 GAMES — Sengun produced 20.4 points on 15.6 field-goal attempts per game across 72 games last season. That volume provides a scoring foundation beyond an isolated hot performance, with interior attempts and free throws supplying routes to the required total.
23 PTS · 15 FGA · 30 MIN IN OPENER — Sengun scored 23 points on 15 attempts in 30 minutes in the opener, while VanVleet supplied 11 assists. A returning lead guard gives Houston another way to initiate possessions before Sengun finishes them, reducing the need for every basket to come from his own isolation creation.
San Antonio can use Wembanyama's length to force Sengun away from clean interior finishes and toward passes. Durant and Smith can take a larger share of Houston's shots, leaving Sengun short despite a competitive game.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ALPEREN SENGUN OVER 17.5 POINTS WITH 18 OR MORE POINTS; NO PUSH ON THE HALF POINT.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Houston Rockets's 5 primary contributors.
| Houston Rockets Contributor | Oct 31 vs OKC | Nov 2 vs BOS | Nov 4 vs MIN | Nov 7 @ PHX | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant HOU · Points | 22.5 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Alperen Sengun HOU · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Amen Thompson HOU · Points | 16.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. HOU · Points | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | +2.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Fred VanVleet HOU · Points | — | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Alperen Sengun prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | MIN @ HOU | Points | Over 19.5 (-109) · Caesars | 19.5 | 17 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 2 | BOS @ HOU | Points | Over 17.5 (-121) · DraftKings | 17.5 | 26 | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 23 | HOU @ SAS | Points | Over 17.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 17.5 | 29 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Sengun's shot volume and Houston's depleted center depth support the workload needed to reach twenty points.
Counter-Case: Gobert can hold his ground without help and push Sengun toward contested finishes. Early fouls or repeated kick-outs to shooters can replace the shot attempts needed to reach twenty points.
Sengun's established shot and free-throw volume can support a normal scoring night without repeating his early-season peak.
Counter-Case: Renewed back discomfort or early fouls could shorten Sengun's night. Boston can pressure his post touches and make passing the better option. A restrained Houston scoring night leaves less room for missed interior attempts.
Sengun's established shot volume supports reaching eighteen points without repeating his opening-game shooting efficiency.
Counter-Case: San Antonio can use Wembanyama's length to force Sengun away from clean interior finishes and toward passes. Durant and Smith can take a larger share of Houston's shots, leaving Sengun short despite a competitive game.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |