Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Up (+2.0 over 6 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked

Jabari Smith Jr. Pts + Reb + Ast Prop (Boston Celtics @ Houston Rockets, Nov 2, 7:30 PM CT): Fair Line 24.5 (-145) vs 22.5 Market

Name: Jabari Smith Jr. Posted Pts + Reb + Ast Line Trajectory & BOS @ HOU Nucleus Drift
Creator: WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk
Published: 2026-11-02T13:47:38+00:00

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released Mon, Nov 2, 7:47 AM CT · Last updated (CT) Sat, Nov 7, 10:56 AM CT

BetMGM: Over 22.5 (-118)Modeled Edge: +8.6% EV · Fair Value 24.5 (-145)

Pick & Release Line: OVER 22.5 (-118); BetMGM
Modeled Fair Line: 24.5; 2.0 Pt Delta
Modeled Fair Price: -145; +8.6% EV
Posted Line Drift: 20.5 → 22.5 (+2.0); Last 6 Active Games
Matchup (CT): BOS @ HOU; Nov 2, 7:30 PM CT
NBA Props Lane CLV: 73 / 11 / 36; Beat / Tied / Lost

Sportsbook Posted Pts + Reb + Ast Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted pts + reb + ast total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.

Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (24.5 / -145)

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 21 to Nov 2), sportsbooks adjusted Jabari Smith Jr.'s posted pts + reb + ast line upward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 20.5 to 22.5 (+2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for BOS @ HOU is 24.5 (-145).

6-Game Posted Pts + Reb + Ast Ledger (Jabari Smith Jr.)

America/Chicago (CT)

Date (CT)	Matchup	Posted Line	Move	Actual	Result
Oct 21	DAL @ HOU	20.5 (-115)	—	36	Over
Oct 23	HOU @ SAS	22.5 (-102)	+2.0	13	Under
Oct 28	HOU @ MIL(Missed 2g)	25.5 (-114)	+3.0	18	Under
Oct 30	HOU @ DAL	24.5 (-115)	-1.0	27	Over
Oct 31	OKC @ HOU	22.5 (-119)	-2.0	44	Over
Nov 2	BOS @ HOU	22.5 (-118)	0.0	24	Over

Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).

BetMGM: Over 22.5 (-118)DraftKings: Over 22.5 (-118)FanDuel: Over 22.5 (-118)Caesars: Over 22.5 (-118)Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production6-Game Window

Jabari Smith Jr. Pts + Reb + Ast Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Actual output +6.5 vs. +2.0 book step adjustment (+4.5 Unpriced Book Lag).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag+4.5Max Single-Game Book Step: +3.0

Window Open Line: 20.5
Current Posted Line: 22.5
Book Cumulative Step: +2.0
Actual Window Avg: 27.0
Actual Output Delta: +6.5
Modeled Fair Value: 24.5 (-145)

Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output

Book Line Actual Stat

Game (CT)	Posted Line	Book Step	Actual	Box Surplus
Oct 21 · vs DAL	20.5	—	36	+15.5
Oct 23 · @ SAS	22.5	+2.0	13	-9.5
Oct 28 · @ MIL	25.5	+3.0	18	-7.5
Oct 30 · @ DAL	24.5	-1.0	27	+2.5
Oct 31 · vs OKC	22.5	-2.0	44	+21.5
Nov 2 · vs BOS	22.5	0.0	24	+1.5

WagerBird Write-Up · Jabari Smith Jr. Pts + Reb + Ast (Over 22.5)

Full Dossier Unlocked

Write-Up Thesis

Smith's regular minutes and contributions across three categories support a broad total without requiring another scoring outburst.

01 · Fundamental Driver

Full-rotation contribution

24.6 PRA · 35.1 MIN · 77 GAMES — Smith's last-season averages added to 24.6 points, rebounds and assists in 35.1 minutes over 77 games. His contribution spans several categories, so the total need not come entirely from shot-making.

02 · Fundamental Driver

Multiple active channels

30 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST — The latest game included 30 points, nine rebounds and five assists. The expected workload remains 35 minutes, while the 24.5 projection does not require that exceptional scoring performance to repeat.

Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors

Thesis Invalidation Risks

Houston's other frontcourt players can collect the available rebounds and leave Smith more dependent on shooting. His assists are a modest part of his contribution, so a cold perimeter night can still control the result. A slower offensive game would reduce opportunities across the combined market.

Settlement Rule: CASHES JABARI SMITH JR. OVER 22.5 POINTS PLUS REBOUNDS PLUS ASSISTS WITH A COMBINED TOTAL OF AT LEAST 23; NO PUSH.

WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal

BOS @ HOU · Houston Rockets Points Nucleus Drift (Nov 2, 7:30 PM CT)

Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Houston Rockets's 5 primary contributors.

HOU Nucleus Drift4 of 5 Core Props Adjusted DownMarket Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish

Houston Rockets Contributor	Oct 31 vs OKC	Nov 2 vs BOS	Nov 4 vs MIN	Nov 7 @ PHX	Game-Over-Game Move	Trend Badge
Kevin Durant HOU · Points	22.5	21.5	22.5	21.5	-1.0	Trending Down ↓
Alperen Sengun HOU · Points	18.5	17.5	19.5	19.5	-1.0	Trending Down ↓
Amen Thompson HOU · Points	16.5	15.5	15.5	14.5	-1.0	Trending Down ↓
Jabari Smith Jr. HOU · Points	14.5	14.5	14.5	14.5	0.0	Flat →
Fred VanVleet HOU · Points	—	11.5	11.5	11.5	-1.0	Trending Down ↓

Houston Rockets (HOU)4 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down

Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish

Boston Celtics (BOS)3 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Up

Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.

Houston Rockets team page →

Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Jabari Smith Jr. Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 1 Lost)

0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Jabari Smith Jr. prop write-up.

Jabari Smith Jr. CLV Counts

0 Beat · 0 Tied · 1 Lost

1 Settled CLV Receipt

Date (CT)	Matchup	Market	Release Quote	Closing Line	Actual	CLV Grade	Write-Up
Nov 2	BOS @ HOU	Pts + Reb + Ast	Over 22.5 (-120) · BetMGM	22.5	24	Lost	Read Write-Up →

Archived Settled Jabari Smith Jr. Prop Write-Ups

Nov 2 CT · BOS @ HOU · Pts + Reb + AstFull Write-Up →

Smith's regular minutes and contributions across three categories support a broad total without requiring another scoring outburst.

Counter-Case: Houston's other frontcourt players can collect the available rebounds and leave Smith more dependent on shooting. His assists are a modest part of his contribution, so a cold perimeter night can still control the result. A slower offensive game would reduce opportunities across the combined market.

NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Prop Lane Window	Beat Close	Tied Close	Lost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)	73	11	36
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)	73	11	36