Prices as of .
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
| Sportsbook | Over | Under | Updated (CT) | Execution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 3-118 | 3-115 | BetMGM | |
| Caesars | 3.5+122 | 3.5-170 | Caesars | |
| DraftKings | 3.5+125 | 3.5-165 | DraftKings | |
| FanDuel | 3.5+136 | 3.5-174 | FanDuel | |
| Fanatics | 2.5-170 | 2.5+130 | Fanatics |
Full market: 13 sportsbooks, consensus 3.5. Links shown for licensed books we work with.
The Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild team total opened at 2.5 on WagerBird's per-book price tape (first recorded Fri, Nov 6, 10:39 AM CT) and currently sits at 3 across 13 tracked sportsbooks, representing a net move of 0.5 pts, with net market movement toward Over. Scheduled kickoff is Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM CT, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Sat, Nov 7, 3:29 PM CT.
At Sat, Nov 7, 11:37 AM CT, 4 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward Over by a median of 1.0 pt. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild team total.
Across the 13 sportsbooks currently quoting the Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild team total, the top-to-bottom market spread is 1.0 pt, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.
Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 6-book consensus prices Over at 3.5 +148 (40.4% vig-free probability) and Under at 3.5 -148 (59.6% vig-free probability).
Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: Over 2.5 -170 at Fanatics; Under 3.5 -165 at DraftKings.
In the NHL team totals betting lane, WagerBird's released plays have beaten the release book's closing line 28 times, tied 3, and lost 16 season to date (47 graded releases through 2026-11-06). Every historical settled release can be verified in the downloadable CSV audit log below.
| Window | Beat | Tied | Lost | Measured | Beat % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date | 28 | 3 | 16 | 47 | 63.6% |
| Last 30 days | 21 | 3 | 13 | 37 | 61.8% |
WagerBird measures closing-line value (CLV) by comparing each pick's release line and price against the pre-kickoff closing number at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released (settled picks through 2026-11-06).
Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild (Home Team Total) attributed to WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):
<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nhl/tampa-bay-lightning-at-minnesota-wild-home-team-total-2026-11-07-34206" title="Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild Home Team Total Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WagerBird" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nhl/tampa-bay-lightning-at-minnesota-wild-home-team-total-2026-11-07-34206">TB @ MIN Home Team Total Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability</a> by WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Tampa Bay Lightning's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
+13.1 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 16.6 vs. 3.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.0 | 72.2% | 16.6 | 3.5 (+113) | +13.1 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Jake Guentzel TB · Prev 2.5 (0.0) | 2.5 | 16.0% | 71.4%(+55.4% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Brandon Hagel TB · Prev 3.5 (-1.0) |
+13.1 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 16.6 vs. 3.5 Posted Team Total)
+19.3 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 22.5 vs. 3.3 Posted Team Total)
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Minnesota Wild's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
+19.3 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 22.5 vs. 3.3 Posted Team Total)
| 2.5 |
| 17.6% |
| 71.4%(+53.8% vs Hist) |
| 0.0 |
| Team Tide Shift |
#3 Nikita Kucherov TB · Prev 3.5 (-1.0) | 2.5 | 12.6% | 71.4%(+58.8% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift |
#4 Charle-Edouard D'Astous TB · Prev 1.5 (0.0) | 1.5 | 8.4% | 42.9%(+34.5% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share |
#5 John Carlson TB · Prev 1.5 (0.0) | 1.5 | 8.4% | 42.9%(+34.5% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share |
#6 Anthony Cirelli TB · Prev 1.5 (0.0) | 1.5 | 9.2% | 42.9%(+33.7% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share |
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.0 | 66.8% | 22.5 | 3.3 (+136) | +19.3 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Kirill Kaprizov MIN · Prev 3.5 (0.0) | 3.5 | 10.1% | 107.7%(+97.6% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Matt Boldy MIN · Prev 3.5 (0.0) | 3.5 | 15.5% | 107.7%(+92.2% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Quinn Hughes MIN · Prev 2.5 (0.0) | 2.5 | 10.1% | 76.9%(+66.8% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#4 Joel Eriksson Ek MIN · Prev 3.5 (-1.0) | 2.5 | 14.2% | 76.9%(+62.7% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Maxim Shabanov MIN · Prev 1.5 (0.0) | 1.5 | 8.1% | 46.2%(+38.1% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#6 Blake Coleman MIN · Prev 2.5 (-1.0) | 1.5 | 8.8% | 46.2%(+37.4% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift |
Hughes' sustained workload and first-unit power-play assignment provide enough shooting opportunities to reach three credited shots.
Boldy's substantial share of Minnesota's shooting and dual scoring-line and power-play roles give him enough opportunities to reach four shots.