By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 7), Matt Boldy's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for TB @ MIN is 3.9 (-121).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ UTA | 3.5 (+114) | — | 2 | Under | |
| NYI @ MIN | 3.5 (-125) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| MIN @ WAS | 3.5 (-120) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| MIN @ PHI | 3.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| SJ @ MIN | 3.5 (-140) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| TB @ MIN | 3.5 (+115) | 0.0 | — | Fair 3.9 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · @ UTA | 3.5 | — | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs NYI | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Nov 1 · @ WAS | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Nov 3 · @ PHI | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Nov 6 · vs SJ | 3.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +3.5 |
| Nov 7 · vs TB | 3.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Boldy's substantial share of Minnesota's shooting and dual scoring-line and power-play roles give him enough opportunities to reach four shots.
72 SOG · 17 GAMES · 14.0% SHARE — Boldy's 72 shots in 17 games account for 14.0% of Minnesota's team total. That established volume gives him a path to four credited shots without needing an unusually efficient scoring night.
21 MIN PROJECTED · TOP LINE · PP1 — Boldy skates alongside Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek and also occupies the first power-play unit. The projected 21-minute workload gives him opportunities at even strength and with the extra attacker rather than relying on one type of possession.
Short rest can turn offensive-zone shifts into chip-outs and changes rather than repeated shot attempts. If Tampa Bay keeps the puck away from the middle and Minnesota spends its special-teams minutes killing penalties, four shots can remain out of reach.
Settlement Rule: CASHES MATT BOLDY OVER 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST FOUR CREDITED SHOTS · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Minnesota Wild's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
+19.3 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 22.5 vs. 3.3 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.0 | 66.8% | 22.5 | 3.3 (+136) | +19.3 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Kirill Kaprizov MIN · Prev 3.5 (0.0) | 3.5 | 10.1% | 107.7%(+97.6% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Matt Boldy MIN · Prev 3.5 (0.0) | 3.5 | 15.5% | 107.7%(+92.2% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Quinn Hughes MIN · Prev 2.5 (0.0) | 2.5 | 10.1% | 76.9%(+66.8% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#4 Joel Eriksson Ek MIN · Prev 3.5 (-1.0) | 2.5 | 14.2% | 76.9%(+62.7% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Maxim Shabanov MIN · Prev 1.5 (0.0) | 1.5 | 8.1% | 46.2%(+38.1% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#6 Blake Coleman MIN · Prev 2.5 (-1.0) | 1.5 | 8.8% | 46.2%(+37.4% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift |
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Matt Boldy prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | TB @ MIN | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+100) · Fanatics | 3.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 1 | MIN @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+100) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 27 | MIN @ UTA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-140) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 25 | MIN @ VAN | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-110) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Boldy's established shooting volume and shared even-strength and power-play deployment provide enough repeat opportunities to reach four recorded shots.
Counter-Case: Washington can keep attempts outside or block them before they reach the net. A penalty-light game removes some of the extra shooting opportunities, while a comfortable Minnesota lead can reduce late attacking urgency.
Boldy's concentrated shot volume and top-unit deployment provide enough routes to three shots despite a restrictive opponent.
Counter-Case: Utah can deny clean entries and turn Boldy's attempts into blocks or misses. An early Minnesota lead could reduce his late attacking opportunities even if the offense finishes efficiently.
Boldy’s sustained shooting volume and first-unit power-play role give him multiple routes to four shots on goal.
Counter-Case: Vancouver can steer Boldy toward blocked attempts or finishes that miss the net. Heavy legs on the second consecutive night could shorten his attacking shifts, while early goals from teammates could reduce the need for sustained pressure.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |