Jake Guentzel (NHL) Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & CLV Record
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 7), Jake Guentzel's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5.
6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Jake Guentzel)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ UTA | 2.5 (+115) | — | 2 | Under | |
| WPG @ TB | 2.5 (-104) | 0.0 | 6 | Over | |
| TB @ NAS | 2.5 (-120) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| DET @ TB | 2.5 (-128) | 0.0 | 0 | Under | |
| CHI @ TB | 2.5 (-113) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| TB @ MIN | 2.5 (-102) | 0.0 | — | Upcoming |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Jake Guentzel Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.1).
- Window Open Line
- 2.5
- Current Posted Line
- 2.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 2.4
- Actual Output Delta
- -0.1
- Modeled Fair Value
- —
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ UTA | 2.5 | — | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs WPG | 2.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +3.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ NAS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Nov 3 · vs DET | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.5 |
| Nov 5 · vs CHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Nov 7 · @ MIN | 2.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Jake Guentzel Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (2 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Jake Guentzel prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | SEA @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 8 | MIN @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+110) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Jake Guentzel Prop Write-Ups
Guentzel's sustained wing minutes and top-unit deployment support three shots against Seattle's elevated shot allowance.
Counter-Case: Hagel can take the finishing chances while Guentzel serves as a passer or screen. Few power plays can remove the extra possessions that would otherwise help him progress from two shots to three.
Guentzel's shooting history and first-unit power-play usage put three shots within his normal workload.
Counter-Case: Guentzel can facilitate Hagel's shooting rather than take the attempts himself. Minnesota may also block his power-play looks before they become shots on goal.
Jake Guentzel WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release | Close | Actual | CLV Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | SEA @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 2 | Beat |
| Oct 8 | MIN @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 | Beat |
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |