Brandon Hagel (NHL) Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & CLV Record
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 7), Brandon Hagel's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5.
6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Brandon Hagel)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ UTA | 2.5 (-155) | — | 7 | Over | |
| WPG @ TB | 3.5 (+140) | +1.0 | 5 | Over | |
| TB @ NAS | 3.5 (+128) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| DET @ TB | 3.5 (+135) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| CHI @ TB | 3.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| TB @ MIN | 2.5 (-120) | -1.0 | — | Upcoming |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Brandon Hagel Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +1.3 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.3 Unpriced Book Lag).
- Window Open Line
- 2.5
- Current Posted Line
- 2.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 3.8
- Actual Output Delta
- +1.3
- Modeled Fair Value
- —
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ UTA | 2.5 | — | 7 | +4.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs WPG | 3.5 | +1.0 | 5 | +1.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ NAS | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Nov 3 · vs DET | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Nov 5 · vs CHI | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Nov 7 · @ MIN | 2.5 | -1.0 | — | — |
Brandon Hagel Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (2 Beat, 1 Tied, 0 Lost)
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Brandon Hagel prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | SEA @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+125) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | TB @ NYR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-160) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 8 | MIN @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-160) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Brandon Hagel Prop Write-Ups
Hagel's elevated ice time, substantial shooting share and first-unit power-play role provide multiple routes to four shots.
Counter-Case: Seattle can close Hagel's entry lanes and turn his slot possessions into passes. A Tampa Bay lead managed through slower possession can reduce his late shooting opportunities and leave him at three shots.
Hagel's expanded minutes and first-unit offensive deployment support enough individual attempts to reach three shots on goal.
Counter-Case: New York can push Hagel's shooting lanes toward blocks and force him to distribute to Guentzel instead. A Tampa lead can turn his late shifts into possession protection rather than repeated attempts on net.
Hagel's established shooting volume and early-season activity support at least three shots.
Counter-Case: An early Tampa Bay lead could reduce Hagel's late-game need to shoot. He can instead set up Cirelli or Guentzel, and missed or blocked attempts would not count as shots on goal.
Brandon Hagel WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release | Close | Actual | CLV Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | SEA @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 | 3.5 | 6 | Beat |
| Oct 13 | TB @ NYR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 | Beat |
| Oct 8 | MIN @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 3 | Tied |
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |