Matt Boldy (NHL) Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & CLV Record
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 7), Matt Boldy's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for TB @ MIN is 3.9 (-121).
6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Matt Boldy)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ UTA | 3.5 (+114) | — | 2 | Under | |
| NYI @ MIN | 3.5 (-125) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| MIN @ WAS | 3.5 (-120) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| MIN @ PHI | 3.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| SJ @ MIN | 3.5 (-140) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| TB @ MIN | 3.5 (+112) | 0.0 | — | Fair 3.9 |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Matt Boldy Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
- Window Open Line
- 3.5
- Current Posted Line
- 3.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 4.0
- Actual Output Delta
- +0.5
- Modeled Fair Value
- 3.9 (-121)
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · @ UTA | 3.5 | — | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs NYI | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Nov 1 · @ WAS | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Nov 3 · @ PHI | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Nov 6 · vs SJ | 3.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +3.5 |
| Nov 7 · vs TB | 3.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Matt Boldy Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (2 Beat, 1 Tied, 0 Lost)
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Matt Boldy prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | TB @ MIN | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+100) · Fanatics | 3.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 1 | MIN @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+100) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 27 | MIN @ UTA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-140) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 25 | MIN @ VAN | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (-110) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Matt Boldy Prop Write-Ups
Boldy's established shooting volume and shared even-strength and power-play deployment provide enough repeat opportunities to reach four recorded shots.
Counter-Case: Washington can keep attempts outside or block them before they reach the net. A penalty-light game removes some of the extra shooting opportunities, while a comfortable Minnesota lead can reduce late attacking urgency.
Boldy's concentrated shot volume and top-unit deployment provide enough routes to three shots despite a restrictive opponent.
Counter-Case: Utah can deny clean entries and turn Boldy's attempts into blocks or misses. An early Minnesota lead could reduce his late attacking opportunities even if the offense finishes efficiently.
Boldy’s sustained shooting volume and first-unit power-play role give him multiple routes to four shots on goal.
Counter-Case: Vancouver can steer Boldy toward blocked attempts or finishes that miss the net. Heavy legs on the second consecutive night could shorten his attacking shifts, while early goals from teammates could reduce the need for sustained pressure.
Matt Boldy WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release | Close | Actual | CLV Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | TB @ MIN | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 | 3.5 | — | — |
| Nov 1 | MIN @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | Beat |
| Oct 27 | MIN @ UTA | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 3.5 | 2 | Beat |
| Oct 25 | MIN @ VAN | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | Tied |
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |