NHL · MoneylineMarket MovementKickoff Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM CTMarket Move: TB (+2.3% implied prob)ES-MX: Momios Sin Vig

Why is the TB @ MIN moneyline moving?

Name: Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild Moneyline: Vig-Free Consensus, Modeled Fair Value & Closing-Line Value Telemetry
Creator: WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk
Published: 2026-11-07T17:34:22.894Z

Prices as of Sat, Nov 7, 3:29 PM CT.

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released Sat, Nov 7, 11:34 AM CT · Last updated (CT) Sat, Nov 7, 11:35 AM CT

WagerBird Signal Status: - No Pick (Market Movement)
Current Consensus across 44 books: TB -123 (44 consensus books · 44 tracked)
Market Move: MIN 48.8% to 46.5% (2.3% implied probability toward TB)
Lane CLV record: NHL moneylines: 34 Beat / 1 Tied / 12 Lost (47 measured)

Why is the TB @ MIN moneyline moving?

Sat, Nov 7, 11:31 AM CTMarket consensus updated (2.2% implied probability) toward MIN across 13 tracked sportsbooks.

Vig-free consensus -123 (55.3% across 44 books)

Best price: -130 at ProphetX

MIN

Vig-free consensus +123 (44.8% across 44 books)

Best price: +126 at ProphetX

TB @ MIN Moneyline Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Sportsbook	TB	MIN	Updated (CT)	Execution
BetMGM	-135	+115	Sat, Nov 7, 3:27 PM CT	BetMGM
Caesars	-137	+116	Sat, Nov 7, 3:27 PM CT	Caesars
DraftKings	-135	+114	Sat, Nov 7, 3:27 PM CT	DraftKings
FanDuel	-134	+112	Sat, Nov 7, 3:27 PM CT	FanDuel
Fanatics	-140	+115	Sat, Nov 7, 3:27 PM CT	Fanatics
ProphetX	-130	+126	Sat, Nov 7, 3:27 PM CT	ProphetX

Full market: 44 sportsbooks, consensus TB -123. Links shown for licensed books we work with.

Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Market Movement Analysis: TB @ MIN Moneyline

The Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild moneyline opened at 48.8% implied probability for MIN on WagerBird's per-book price tape (first recorded Sun, Nov 1, 3:20 AM CT) and currently sits at 46.5% implied probability for MIN across 44 tracked sportsbooks, representing a net move of 2.3% implied probability, with net market movement toward TB. Scheduled kickoff is Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM CT, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Sat, Nov 7, 3:29 PM CT.

At Sat, Nov 7, 11:31 AM CT, 13 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward MIN by a median of 2.2% implied probability. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild moneyline.

Across the 44 sportsbooks currently quoting the Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild moneyline, the top-to-bottom market spread is 4.1% implied probability, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.

Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 44-book consensus prices TB at -123 (55.3% vig-free probability) and MIN at +123 (44.8% vig-free probability).

Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: TB -130 at ProphetX; MIN +126 at ProphetX.

In the NHL moneylines betting lane, WagerBird's released plays have beaten the release book's closing line 34 times, tied 1, and lost 12 season to date (47 graded releases through 2026-11-06). Every historical settled release can be verified in the downloadable CSV audit log below.

NHL Moneylines Closing-Line Value Record (34 Beat, 1 Tied, 12 Lost)

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Window	Beat	Tied	Lost	Measured	Beat %
Season to date	34	1	12	47	73.9%
Last 30 days	19	0	12	31	61.3%

WagerBird measures closing-line value (CLV) by comparing each pick's release line and price against the pre-kickoff closing number at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released (settled picks through 2026-11-06).

Preview Live Widget

Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild (Moneyline) attributed to WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):

<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nhl/tampa-bay-lightning-at-minnesota-wild-moneyline-2026-11-07-34206" title="Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild Moneyline Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WagerBird" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nhl/tampa-bay-lightning-at-minnesota-wild-moneyline-2026-11-07-34206">TB @ MIN Moneyline Vig-Free Odds &amp; Implied Probability</a> by WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>

WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftTB @ MIN · Shots on Goal

TB @ MIN · Tampa Bay Lightning WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 7:00 PM CT)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Tampa Bay Lightning's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

TB Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 2 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

+13.1 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 16.6 vs. 3.5 Posted Team Total)

6 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

Core-6 Sum	Core-6 Share	Implied Total	Posted Total	Reconciliation Gap
12.0	72.2%	16.6	3.5 (+113)	+13.1

Compare TB Team Total Partner Quotes:

FanDuel 3.5 (O +102)DraftKings 3.5 (O -105)BetMGM 3.5 (O -102)Caesars 3.5 (O -109)Kalshi (Code WBIRD1)

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	6G Trend	Outcome Tag
#1 Jake Guentzel TB · Prev 2.5 (0.0)	2.5	16.0%	71.4%(+55.4% vs Hist)	0.0		Steady Share
#2 Brandon Hagel TB · Prev 3.5 (-1.0)

Tampa Bay Lightning (TB)Team Tide Shift

+13.1 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 16.6 vs. 3.5 Posted Team Total)

Minnesota Wild (MIN)Team Tide Shift

+19.3 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 22.5 vs. 3.3 Posted Team Total)

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.

Tampa Bay Lightning team page →

WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftTB @ MIN · Shots on Goal

TB @ MIN · Minnesota Wild WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 7:00 PM CT)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Minnesota Wild's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

MIN Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 2 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

+19.3 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 22.5 vs. 3.3 Posted Team Total)

6 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

NHL Player Props · Verified CLV: 50 Beat / 10 Tied / 21 LostThrough Nov 6 CT

Released Player Props & CLV Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)

All NHL Player Props →Audit CSV

TB @ MIN · MIN · Shots on GoalFree Dossier Release

Quinn Hughes · Shots on Goal

Pick & Line: Over 2.5
Fair Value: 2.8 (-113)
Book: Fanatics (+115)

Hughes' sustained workload and first-unit power-play assignment provide enough shooting opportunities to reach three credited shots.

Prop Dossier →Player History

Fanatics: Over 2.5 (+115)Kalshi · WBIRD1

TB @ MIN · MIN · Shots on GoalFree Dossier Release

Matt Boldy · Shots on Goal

Pick & Line: Over 3.5
Fair Value: 3.9 (-121)
Book: Fanatics (+115)

Boldy's substantial share of Minnesota's shooting and dual scoring-line and power-play roles give him enough opportunities to reach four shots.

Prop Dossier →Player History

Fanatics: Over 3.5 (+115)Kalshi · WBIRD1

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	Outcome Tag
#1 Kirill Kaprizov MIN · Prev 3.5 (0.0)	3.5	10.1%	107.7%(+97.6% vs Hist)	Steady Share
#2 Matt Boldy MIN · Prev 3.5 (0.0)	3.5	15.5%	107.7%(+92.2% vs Hist)	Steady Share
#3 Quinn Hughes MIN · Prev 2.5 (0.0)	2.5	10.1%	76.9%(+66.8% vs Hist)	Steady Share
#4 Joel Eriksson Ek MIN · Prev 3.5 (-1.0)	2.5	14.2%	76.9%(+62.7% vs Hist)	Team Tide Shift
#5 Maxim Shabanov MIN · Prev 1.5 (0.0)	1.5	8.1%	46.2%(+38.1% vs Hist)	Steady Share
#6 Blake Coleman MIN · Prev 2.5 (-1.0)	1.5	8.8%	46.2%(+37.4% vs Hist)	Team Tide Shift

Why is the TB @ MIN moneyline moving?

Vig-free consensus and best partner price

TB @ MIN Moneyline Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Market Movement Analysis: TB @ MIN Moneyline

NHL Moneylines Closing-Line Value Record (34 Beat, 1 Tied, 12 Lost)

Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)

TB @ MIN · Tampa Bay Lightning WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 7:00 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

TB @ MIN · Minnesota Wild WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 7:00 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & CLV Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)

Quinn Hughes · Shots on Goal

Matt Boldy · Shots on Goal

TB @ MIN · Tampa Bay Lightning WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 7:00 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

TB @ MIN · Minnesota Wild WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 7:00 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & CLV Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)

Quinn Hughes · Shots on Goal

Matt Boldy · Shots on Goal