Posted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 6 games)Free Dossier Release

Quinn Hughes Shots on Goal Prop (Tampa Bay Lightning @ Minnesota Wild, ): Fair Line 2.8 (-113) vs 2.5 Market

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

Fanatics: Over 2.5 (+115)Modeled Edge: +8.8% EV · Fair Value 2.8 (-113)
Pick & Release Line
OVER 2.5 (+115)
BetMGM
Modeled Fair Line
2.8
0.3 Pt Delta
Modeled Fair Price
-113
+8.8% EV
Posted Line Drift
2.5 → 2.5 (0.0)
Last 6 Active Games
Matchup (CT)
TB @ MIN
NHL Props Lane CLV
50 / 10 / 21
Beat / Tied / Lost

Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.

Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (2.8 / -113)
Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 7), Quinn Hughes's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for TB @ MIN is 2.8 (-113).4.03.53.02.52.01.5WB FAIR LINE: 2.82.52.52.52.52.52.5Oct 27MIN @ UTAOct 29NYI @ MINNov 1MIN @ WASNov 3MIN @ PHINov 6SJ @ MINNov 7TB @ MIN

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 7), Quinn Hughes's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for TB @ MIN is 2.8 (-113).

6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Quinn Hughes)

America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
MIN @ UTA2.5 (+132)—2Under
NYI @ MIN2.5 (+115)0.04Over
MIN @ WAS2.5 (+110)0.03Over
MIN @ PHI2.5 (+120)0.01Under
SJ @ MIN2.5 (-110)0.02Under
TB @ MIN2.5 (+115)0.0—Fair 2.8

Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Fanatics: Over 2.5 (+115)DraftKings: Over 2.5 (+115)FanDuel: Over 2.5 (+106)BetMGM: Over 2.5 (+115)Caesars: Over 2.5 (+112)Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window

Quinn Hughes Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.1).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag-0.1Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0
Window Open Line
2.5
Current Posted Line
2.5
Book Cumulative Step
0.0
Actual Window Avg
2.4
Actual Output Delta
-0.1
Modeled Fair Value
2.8 (-113)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
Quinn Hughes Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted Shots on Goal Line vs Actual Box-Score Output502Oct 27@ UTA4Oct 29vs NYI3Nov 1@ WAS1Nov 3@ PHI2Nov 6vs SJNov 7vs TB
Game (CT)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Oct 27 · @ UTA2.5—2-0.5
Oct 29 · vs NYI2.50.04+1.5
Nov 1 · @ WAS2.50.03+0.5
Nov 3 · @ PHI2.50.01-1.5
Nov 6 · vs SJ2.50.02-0.5
Nov 7 · vs TB2.50.0——

WagerBird Write-Up · Quinn Hughes Shots on Goal (Over 2.5)

Free Dossier Release
Write-Up Thesis

Hughes' sustained workload and first-unit power-play assignment provide enough shooting opportunities to reach three credited shots.

01 · Fundamental Driver

Minutes sustain opportunities

29 MIN PROJECTED · 29:51 RECENT ATOI — Hughes averaged approximately 29:51 across his latest five logged games, supporting the 29-minute playing-time projection. That workload gives him repeated chances to join possessions and release a point shot, although minutes alone do not force him to shoot.

02 · Fundamental Driver

A point-shot route

48 SOG · 17 GAMES · PP1 — Hughes has 48 shots in 17 games and occupies Minnesota's first power-play unit. Extra-attacker possessions can create shooting lanes through traffic, providing a route to three shots alongside his even-strength opportunities.

Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors

Thesis Invalidation Risks

A patient point distributor can spend long shifts feeding the forwards without recording a shot himself. Tampa Bay can also block his shooting lanes, while a quiet penalty count removes the power-play possessions that help him reach three.

Settlement Rule: CASHES QUINN HUGHES OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST THREE CREDITED SHOTS · PUSH IMPOSSIBLE ON THE HALF.

WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftTB @ MIN · Shots on Goal

TB @ MIN · Minnesota Wild WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) ()

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Minnesota Wild's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

MIN Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 2 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

+19.3 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 22.5 vs. 3.3 Posted Team Total)

6 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total
Minnesota Wild Core-6 Prop Sum 15.0 vs Implied Team Total 22.5 vs Posted Team Total 3.3Core-6 Prop Sum15.0Implied Team Total22.5Posted Team Total3.3
Core-6 SumCore-6 ShareImplied TotalPosted TotalReconciliation Gap
15.066.8%22.53.3 (+136)+19.3
Compare MIN Team Total Partner Quotes:
FanDuel 3.5 (O +136)DraftKings 3.5 (O +125)BetMGM 3.0 (O -118)Caesars 3.5 (O +122)Kalshi (Code WBIRD1)
Core-6 PlayerTonight LineTeam Scoring Share %Tonight's Implied Prop Share %6-Game Line Drift6G TrendOutcome Tag
#1
Kirill Kaprizov
MIN · Prev 3.5 (0.0)
3.510.1%107.7%(+97.6% vs Hist)0.0Kirill Kaprizov 6-game posted line trend from 3.5 to 3.5Steady Share
#2
Matt Boldy
MIN · Prev 3.5 (0.0)
3.515.5%107.7%(+92.2% vs Hist)0.0Matt Boldy 6-game posted line trend from 3.5 to 3.5Steady Share
#3
Quinn Hughes
MIN · Prev 2.5 (0.0)
2.510.1%76.9%(+66.8% vs Hist)0.0Quinn Hughes 6-game posted line trend from 2.5 to 2.5Steady Share
#4
Joel Eriksson Ek
MIN · Prev 3.5 (-1.0)
2.514.2%76.9%(+62.7% vs Hist)0.0Joel Eriksson Ek 6-game posted line trend from 2.5 to 2.5Team Tide Shift
#5
Maxim Shabanov
MIN · Prev 1.5 (0.0)
1.58.1%46.2%(+38.1% vs Hist)0.0Maxim Shabanov 6-game posted line trend from 1.5 to 1.5Steady Share
#6
Blake Coleman
MIN · Prev 2.5 (-1.0)
1.58.8%46.2%(+37.4% vs Hist)0.0Blake Coleman 6-game posted line trend from 1.5 to 1.5Team Tide Shift
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.
View TB @ MIN Game Markets →Minnesota Wild team page →
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Quinn Hughes Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

1 active Quinn Hughes prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.

Quinn Hughes CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
0 Settled CLV Receipts
Date (CT)MatchupMarketRelease QuoteClosing LineActualCLV GradeWrite-Up
Nov 7TB @ MINShots on GoalOver 2.5 (+105) · Fanatics2.5——Read Write-Up →

NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowBeat CloseTied CloseLost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)501021
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)48921