By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 23), sportsbooks adjusted Victor Wembanyama's posted rebounds line downward in 1 of 1 game-over-game steps from 11.5 to 10.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for HOU @ SAS is 12.4 (-139).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC @ SAS | 11.5 (-113) | — | 13 | Over | |
| HOU @ SAS | 10.5 (-137) | -1.0 | 13 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 2 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.5 vs. -1.0 book step adjustment (+2.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs OKC | 11.5 | — | 13 | +1.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs HOU | 10.5 | -1.0 | 13 | +2.5 |
Wembanyama's established rebounding rate and expected starting workload support reaching a dozen boards even after allowing for Houston's work on the offensive glass.
11.5 RPG · 29.2 MIN · 64 GAMES — Wembanyama averaged 11.5 rebounds in 29.2 minutes across 64 games last season. An expected 33-minute assignment extends that established workload, while the 12.4-rebound projection leaves room for Houston to win some contested boards.
13 REB · 34 MIN IN OPENER — He collected 13 rebounds in 34 minutes in the opening game. San Antonio's opening group placed Fox, Castle, Harper and Vassell alongside him, making his positioning around the basket central to finishing defensive possessions.
Efficient Houston shooting can leave few defensive rebounds, while aggressive offensive crashes take away available boards. Foul trouble or a shorter center stint would remove the minutes Wembanyama needs to reach the threshold.
Settlement Rule: CASHES VICTOR WEMBANYAMA OVER 11.5 REBOUNDS WITH 12 OR MORE REBOUNDS; NO PUSH ON THE HALF POINT.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across San Antonio Spurs's 5 primary contributors.
| San Antonio Spurs Contributor | Nov 2 vs UTA | Nov 4 vs DAL | Nov 6 @ SAC | Nov 7 @ POR | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama SAS · Points | 26.5 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 26.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Harper SAS · Points | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Stephon Castle SAS · Points | 16.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| De'Aaron Fox SAS · Points | 15.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Devin Vassell SAS · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Victor Wembanyama prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | HOU @ SAS | Rebounds | Over 11.5 (+124) · Kalshi | 10.5 | 13 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Wembanyama's established rebounding rate and expected starting workload support reaching a dozen boards even after allowing for Houston's work on the offensive glass.
Counter-Case: Efficient Houston shooting can leave few defensive rebounds, while aggressive offensive crashes take away available boards. Foul trouble or a shorter center stint would remove the minutes Wembanyama needs to reach the threshold.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |