By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 20 to Oct 23), Devin Vassell's posted rebounds line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for HOU @ SAS is 4.1 (-141).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC @ SAS | 3.5 (-125) | — | 3 | Under | |
| HOU @ SAS | 3.5 (+106) | 0.0 | 4 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (0.0).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 · vs OKC | 3.5 | — | 3 | -0.5 |
| Oct 23 · vs HOU | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
Vassell's established rebounding production at a similar workload supports four boards without requiring a scoring breakout.
4.0 RPG · 30.5 MIN · 67 GAMES — Vassell averaged 4.0 rebounds in 30.5 minutes across 67 games last season. The expected 31-minute workload asks him to reproduce a familiar level of involvement rather than depend on unusually extended playing time.
3-GUARD OPENING GROUP · HARRIS OUT — The opening starting group paired Vassell and Wembanyama with Fox, Castle and Harper, while Harris is out for this game. That arrangement gives Vassell a useful opportunity to help finish possessions from the weak side even when the guards handle most of the ball creation.
Wembanyama can secure most of the interior misses while longer rebounds reach the guards. A rotation that restores another forward alongside Vassell would reduce his share, and hot Houston shooting would leave fewer chances.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DEVIN VASSELL OVER 3.5 REBOUNDS WITH 4 OR MORE REBOUNDS; NO PUSH ON THE HALF POINT.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across San Antonio Spurs's 5 primary contributors.
| San Antonio Spurs Contributor | Nov 2 vs UTA | Nov 4 vs DAL | Nov 6 @ SAC | Nov 7 @ POR | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama SAS · Points | 26.5 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 26.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Harper SAS · Points | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Stephon Castle SAS · Points | 16.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| De'Aaron Fox SAS · Points | 15.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Devin Vassell SAS · Points | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | -2.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Devin Vassell prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | HOU @ SAS | Rebounds | Over 3.5 (+103) · DraftKings | 3.5 | 4 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Vassell's established rebounding production at a similar workload supports four boards without requiring a scoring breakout.
Counter-Case: Wembanyama can secure most of the interior misses while longer rebounds reach the guards. A rotation that restores another forward alongside Vassell would reduce his share, and hot Houston shooting would leave fewer chances.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |