Franz Wagner · Assists
- Pick & Line
- Over 7.5
- Fair Value
- 8.1 (-249)
- Book
- Fanatics (+118)
Wagner's central creation role and Carter's finishing give him a credible path beyond six assists.
Prices as of .
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
| Sportsbook | ORL | GSW | Updated (CT) | Execution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +220 | -275 | BetMGM | |
| Caesars | +222 | -278 | Caesars | |
| DraftKings | +231 | -284 | DraftKings | |
| FanDuel | +225 | -275 | FanDuel | |
| Fanatics | +230 | -286 | Fanatics | |
| ProphetX | +250 | -260 | ProphetX |
Full market: 57 sportsbooks, consensus ORL +236. Links shown for licensed books we work with.
The Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors moneyline opened at 71.4% implied probability for GSW on WagerBird's per-book price tape (first recorded Fri, Nov 6, 11:00 PM CT) and currently sits at 73.5% implied probability for GSW across 57 tracked sportsbooks, representing a net move of 2.1% implied probability, with net market movement toward GSW. Scheduled kickoff is Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Sat, Nov 7, 3:27 PM CT.
At Sat, Nov 7, 7:49 AM CT, 54 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward ORL by a median of 2.9% implied probability. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors moneyline.
At Sat, Nov 7, 1:52 PM CT, 18 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward GSW by a median of 2.7% implied probability. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors moneyline.
As of Sat, Nov 7, 3:15 PM CT, vig-free implied probability has shifted +5.2% toward GSW across 57 tracked sportsbooks. Sustained directional repricing across the consensus board highlights ongoing market adjustment ahead of kickoff.
Across the 57 sportsbooks currently quoting the Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors moneyline, the top-to-bottom market spread is 5.0% implied probability, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.
Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 57-book consensus prices ORL at +236 (29.8% vig-free probability) and GSW at -236 (70.3% vig-free probability).
Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: ORL +250 at ProphetX; GSW -260 at ProphetX.
In the NBA moneylines betting lane, WagerBird's released plays have beaten the release book's closing line 2 times, tied 0, and lost 1 season to date (3 graded releases through 2026-11-06). Every historical settled release can be verified in the downloadable CSV audit log below.
| Window | Beat | Tied | Lost | Measured | Beat % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 66.7% |
| Last 30 days | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 66.7% |
WagerBird measures closing-line value (CLV) by comparing each pick's release line and price against the pre-kickoff closing number at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released (settled picks through 2026-11-06).
Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors (Moneyline) attributed to WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):
<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nba/orlando-magic-at-golden-state-warriors-moneyline-2026-11-07-34195" title="Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors Moneyline Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WagerBird" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nba/orlando-magic-at-golden-state-warriors-moneyline-2026-11-07-34195">ORL @ GSW Moneyline Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability</a> by WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Orlando Magic's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
+2.2 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 108.7 vs. 106.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.0 | 92.0% | 108.7 | 106.5 (-104) | +2.2 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Franz Wagner ORL · Prev 23.5 (+1.0) | 24.5 | 20.0% | 23.0%(+3.0% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#2 Desmond Bane ORL · Prev 20.5 (-1.0) |
+2.2 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 108.7 vs. 106.5 Posted Team Total)
-30.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 83.4 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Golden State Warriors's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-30.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 83.4 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)
| 19.5 |
| 20.0% |
| 18.3%(-1.7% vs Hist) |
| 0.0 |
| Usage Transfer |
#3 Anthony Black ORL · Prev 15.5 (+2.0) | 17.5 | 15.6% | 16.4%(+0.8% vs Hist) | +3.0 | Team Tide Shift |
#4 Tristan da Silva ORL · Prev 12.5 (+2.0) | 14.5 | 16.7% | 13.6%(-3.1% vs Hist) | +3.0 | Team Tide Shift |
#5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL · Prev 11.5 (+2.0) | 13.5 | 12.3% | 12.7%(+0.4% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Team Tide Shift |
#6 Jase Richardson ORL · Prev 7.5 (+3.0) | 10.5 | 7.4% | 9.9%(+2.5% vs Hist) | +3.0 | Team Tide Shift |
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76.5 | 91.7% | 83.4 | 113.5 (-110) | -30.1 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Stephen Curry GSW · Prev 28.5 (-2.0) | 26.5 | 32.6% | 23.3%(-9.3% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#2 Yaxel Lendeborg GSW · Prev 18.5 (0.0) | 18.5 | 23.3% | 16.3%(-7.0% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Brandin Podziemski GSW · Prev 16.5 (-1.0) | 15.5 | 16.3% | 13.7%(-2.6% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#4 De'Anthony Melton GSW · Prev 10.5 (-2.0) | 8.5 | 9.7% | 7.5%(-2.2% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Georges Niang GSW · Prev 7.5 (0.0) | 7.5 | 9.8% | 6.6%(-3.2% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share |
Wagner's central creation role and Carter's finishing give him a credible path beyond six assists.
Podziemski's starter-sized workload and established passing production support four assists.
Lendeborg's shot volume and free-throw opportunities support scoring beyond the posted threshold.