01 · Fundamental Driver
Primary creation responsibility
68 AST · 8 GAMES — Wagner is averaging 8.5 assists across eight appearances. Banchero and Suggs are Out, preserving the need for him to organize a large share of Orlando's possessions.
Posted Line Trajectory: Trending Up (+2.0 over 6 games)Free Dossier Release
Franz Wagner Assists Prop (Orlando Magic @ Golden State Warriors, ): Fair Line 8.1 (-249) vs 7.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Fanatics: Over 7.5 (+110)Modeled Edge: +20.6% EV · Fair Value 8.1 (-249)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 7.5 (+118)
- ProphetX
- Modeled Fair Line
- 8.1
- 0.6 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -249
- +20.6% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 5.5 → 7.5 (+2.0)
- Last 6 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- ORL @ GSW
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 73 / 11 / 36
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Assists Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (8.1 / -249)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted Franz Wagner's posted assists line upward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 5.5 to 7.5 (+2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for ORL @ GSW is 8.1 (-249).
6-Game Posted Assists Ledger (Franz Wagner)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL @ TOR | 5.5 (-150) | — | 5 | Under | |
| ORL @ TOR | 6.5 (+114) | +1.0 | 11 | Over | |
| BOS @ ORL | 6.5 (+115) | 0.0 | 12 | Over | |
| WAS @ ORL | 6.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 6 | Under | |
| ORL @ PHX | 6.5 (-117) | 0.0 | 15 | Over | |
| ORL @ GSW | 7.5 (+118) | +1.0 | — | Fair 8.1 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production6-Game Window
Franz Wagner Assists Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +4.3 vs. +2.0 book step adjustment (+2.3 Unpriced Book Lag).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+2.3Max Single-Game Book Step: +1.0
- Window Open Line
- 5.5
- Current Posted Line
- 7.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- +2.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 9.8
- Actual Output Delta
- +4.3
- Modeled Fair Value
- 8.1 (-249)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 · @ TOR | 5.5 | — | 5 | -0.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ TOR | 6.5 | +1.0 | 11 | +4.5 |
| Nov 1 · vs BOS | 6.5 | 0.0 | 12 | +5.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs WAS | 6.5 | 0.0 | 6 | -0.5 |
| Nov 5 · @ PHX | 6.5 | 0.0 | 15 | +8.5 |
| Nov 7 · @ GSW | 7.5 | +1.0 | — | — |
WagerBird Write-Up · Franz Wagner Assists (Over 7.5)
Free Dossier ReleaseWrite-Up Thesis
Wagner's central creation role and Carter's finishing give him a credible path beyond six assists.
02 · Fundamental Driver
A concrete finishing outlet
6 ALLEY-OOP LINKS · 3 IN PHOENIX — Wagner's connection with Carter has produced six alley-oop assists, including three in Phoenix. That interior partnership provides a direct route from Wagner's penetration to a completed scoring pass.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Orlando's restrained scoring environment can leave good passes unrewarded by made baskets. Golden State can also use single coverage to encourage Wagner to finish possessions himself instead of supplying the final pass.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ONCE FRANZ WAGNER RECORDS AT LEAST SEVEN ASSISTS, WITH NO PUSH AT 6.5.
WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftORL @ GSW · Points
ORL @ GSW · Orlando Magic WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) ()
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Orlando Magic's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
ORL Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 5 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted UpTeam Tide Shift (Bullish): Market Expanding Core-6 Scoring Ceiling
Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)
+2.2 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 108.7 vs. 106.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100.0 | 92.0% | 108.7 | 106.5 (-104) | +2.2 |
Compare ORL Team Total Partner Quotes:
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Franz Wagner ORL · Prev 23.5 (+1.0) | 24.5 | 20.0% | 23.0%(+3.0% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#2 Desmond Bane ORL · Prev 20.5 (-1.0) | 19.5 | 20.0% | 18.3%(-1.7% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Usage Transfer | |
#3 Anthony Black ORL · Prev 15.5 (+2.0) | 17.5 | 15.6% | 16.4%(+0.8% vs Hist) | +3.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#4 Tristan da Silva ORL · Prev 12.5 (+2.0) | 14.5 | 16.7% | 13.6%(-3.1% vs Hist) | +3.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL · Prev 11.5 (+2.0) | 13.5 | 12.3% | 12.7%(+0.4% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#6 Jase Richardson ORL · Prev 7.5 (+3.0) | 10.5 | 7.4% | 9.9%(+2.5% vs Hist) | +3.0 | Team Tide Shift |
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault2 Tracked Write-Ups
Franz Wagner Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Franz Wagner prop write-up.
Franz Wagner CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | ORL @ GSW | Assists | Over 6.5 (-145) · Fanatics | 7.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 25 | ORL @ NYK | Points | Over 21.5 (-115) · DraftKings | 22.5 | 23 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Franz Wagner Prop Write-Ups
Oct 25 CT · ORL @ NYK · PointsFull Write-Up →
Banchero's absence concentrates enough scoring responsibility on Wagner to support a larger workload.
Counter-Case: New York can load help toward Wagner's driving lanes and make him give the ball up. A comfortable home lead would also threaten his closing minutes in a game where Orlando's scoring is already expected to be limited.
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |