NBA Player Prop & CLV DossierTeam: ORLPosted Line Trajectory: Trending Up (+1.0 over 6 games)

Franz Wagner (NBA) Posted Points Line Trajectory & CLV Record

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

NBA Player Props CLV Counts
73 Beat · 11 Tied · 36 Lost
Franz Wagner Releases: 1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost
Active Release Tonight · ORL @ GSW ()
Franz Wagner Assists: Posted 7.5 · Free Pick OVER
Open Tonight's Prop Dossier →

Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game.

Posted Book Line
Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted Franz Wagner's posted points line upward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 23.5 to 24.5 (+1.0).25.524.523.522.521.520.523.522.521.524.523.524.5Oct 28ORL @ TOROct 30ORL @ TORNov 1BOS @ ORLNov 2WAS @ ORLNov 5ORL @ PHXNov 7ORL @ GSW

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted Franz Wagner's posted points line upward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 23.5 to 24.5 (+1.0).

6-Game Posted Points Ledger (Franz Wagner)

America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
ORL @ TOR23.5 (-105)—15Under
ORL @ TOR22.5 (-104)-1.026Over
BOS @ ORL21.5 (-115)-1.014Under
WAS @ ORL24.5 (+115)+3.024Under
ORL @ PHX23.5 (-104)-1.015Under
ORL @ GSW24.5 (+102)+1.0—Upcoming

Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Ahead of Production6-Game Window

Franz Wagner Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Books adjusted +1.0 vs. -4.7 actual output delta (-5.7 Book Over-Adjustment).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag-5.7Max Single-Game Book Step: +3.0
Window Open Line
23.5
Current Posted Line
24.5
Book Cumulative Step
+1.0
Actual Window Avg
18.8
Actual Output Delta
-4.7
Modeled Fair Value
—
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
Franz Wagner Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted Points Line vs Actual Box-Score Output291115Oct 28@ TOR26Oct 30@ TOR14Nov 1vs BOS24Nov 2vs WAS15Nov 5@ PHXNov 7@ GSW
Game (CT)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Oct 28 · @ TOR23.5—15-8.5
Oct 30 · @ TOR22.5-1.026+3.5
Nov 1 · vs BOS21.5-1.014-7.5
Nov 2 · vs WAS24.5+3.024-0.5
Nov 5 · @ PHX23.5-1.015-8.5
Nov 7 · @ GSW24.5+1.0——
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Franz Wagner Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Franz Wagner prop write-up.

Franz Wagner CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt
Date (CT)MatchupMarketRelease QuoteClosing LineActualCLV GradeWrite-Up
Oct 25ORL @ NYKPointsOver 21.5 (-115) · DraftKings22.523BeatRead Write-Up →

Archived Settled Franz Wagner Prop Write-Ups

Oct 25 CT · ORL @ NYK · PointsFull Write-Up →

Banchero's absence concentrates enough scoring responsibility on Wagner to support a larger workload.

Counter-Case: New York can load help toward Wagner's driving lanes and make him give the ball up. A comfortable home lead would also threaten his closing minutes in a game where Orlando's scoring is already expected to be limited.

Franz Wagner WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive

Date (CT)MatchupMarketReleaseCloseActualCLV Grade
Nov 7ORL @ GSWAssistsOver 6.57.5——
Oct 25ORL @ NYKPointsOver 21.522.523Beat

NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowBeat CloseTied CloseLost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)731136
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)731136