NBA · 1st Quarter MoneylineMarket MovementKickoff Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM CTMarket Move: PHX (+0.9% implied prob)ES-MX: Momios Sin Vig

Why is the HOU @ PHX 1st Quarter Moneyline moving?

Name: Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns First-quarter moneyline: Vig-Free Consensus, Modeled Fair Value & Closing-Line Value Telemetry
Creator: WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk
Published: 2026-11-07T18:52:18.606Z

Prices as of Sat, Nov 7, 3:27 PM CT.

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released Sat, Nov 7, 12:52 PM CT · Last updated (CT) Sat, Nov 7, 1:46 PM CT

WagerBird Signal Status: - No Pick (Market Movement)
Current Consensus across 21 books: HOU -142 (21 consensus books · 21 tracked)
Market Move: PHX 42.6% to 43.5% (0.9% implied probability toward PHX)
Lane CLV record: NBA first-quarter moneylines: 0 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost (0 measured)

Why is the HOU @ PHX 1st Quarter Moneyline moving?

Sat, Nov 7, 12:49 PM CTMarket consensus updated (1.9% implied probability) toward PHX across 6 tracked sportsbooks.

HOU

Vig-free consensus -142 (58.7% across 21 books)

Best price: -155 at DraftKings

PHX

Vig-free consensus +142 (41.3% across 21 books)

Best price: +130 at BetMGM

HOU @ PHX 1st Quarter Moneyline Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Sportsbook	HOU	PHX	Updated (CT)	Execution
BetMGM	-160	+130	Sat, Nov 7, 3:27 PM CT	BetMGM
Caesars	-160	+130	Sat, Nov 7, 3:07 PM CT	Caesars
DraftKings	-155	+130	Sat, Nov 7, 3:26 PM CT	DraftKings
FanDuel	-158	+128	Sat, Nov 7, 3:24 PM CT	FanDuel
Fanatics	-170	+130	Sat, Nov 7, 3:25 PM CT	Fanatics

Full market: 21 sportsbooks, consensus HOU -142. Links shown for licensed books we work with.

Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Market Movement Analysis: HOU @ PHX 1st Quarter Moneyline

The Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns first-quarter moneyline opened at 42.6% implied probability for PHX on WagerBird's per-book price tape (first recorded Fri, Nov 6, 11:18 PM CT) and currently sits at 43.5% implied probability for PHX across 21 tracked sportsbooks, representing a net move of 0.9% implied probability, with net market movement toward PHX. Scheduled kickoff is Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM CT, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Sat, Nov 7, 3:27 PM CT.

At Sat, Nov 7, 12:49 PM CT, 6 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward PHX by a median of 1.9% implied probability. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns first-quarter moneyline.

Across the 21 sportsbooks currently quoting the Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns first-quarter moneyline, the top-to-bottom market spread is 3.8% implied probability, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.

Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 21-book consensus prices HOU at -142 (58.7% vig-free probability) and PHX at +142 (41.3% vig-free probability).

Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: HOU -155 at DraftKings; PHX +130 at BetMGM.

WagerBird tracks closing-line value (Beat / Tied / Lost against the release sportsbook's closing number) across every NBA first-quarter moneylines release; the full historical audit CSV is available for download below.

NBA First-Quarter Moneylines Closing-Line Value Record (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Window	Beat	Tied	Lost	Measured	Beat %
Season to date	0	0	0	0	-
Last 30 days	0	0	0	0	-

WagerBird measures closing-line value (CLV) by comparing each pick's release line and price against the pre-kickoff closing number at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released (settled picks through 2026-11-06).

Preview Live Widget

Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns (1st Quarter Moneyline) attributed to WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):

<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nba/houston-rockets-at-phoenix-suns-1q-moneyline-2026-11-07-34196" title="Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns 1st Quarter Moneyline Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WagerBird" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nba/houston-rockets-at-phoenix-suns-1q-moneyline-2026-11-07-34196">HOU @ PHX 1st Quarter Moneyline Vig-Free Odds &amp; Implied Probability</a> by WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>

WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Usage TransferHOU @ PHX · Points

HOU @ PHX · Houston Rockets WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 8:00 PM CT)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Houston Rockets's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

HOU Rotation Mode: Usage TransferUsage Transfer: 1 Core Scorer Up vs. 2 DownInternal Rotation Usage Transfer: Scoring Share Redistributing Inside Core-6 Rotation

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-4.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 111.4 vs. 115.5 Posted Team Total)

7 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

Core-6 Sum	Core-6 Share	Implied Total	Posted Total	Reconciliation Gap
92.0	82.6%	111.4	115.5 (+100)	-4.1

Compare HOU Team Total Partner Quotes:

FanDuel 114.5 (O -115)DraftKings 115.5 (O -110)BetMGM 115.5 (O -110)Caesars 115.5 (O -110)Kalshi (Code WBIRD1)

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	6G Trend	Outcome Tag
#1 Kevin Durant HOU · Prev 22.5 (-1.0)	21.5	16.2%	18.6%(+2.4% vs Hist)	-4.0		Usage Transfer
#2 Alperen Sengun HOU · Prev 19.5 (+1.0)

Houston Rockets (HOU)Usage Transfer

-4.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 111.4 vs. 115.5 Posted Team Total)

Phoenix Suns (PHX)Team Tide Shift

-8.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 101.4 vs. 109.5 Posted Team Total)

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.

Houston Rockets team page →

WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftHOU @ PHX · Points

HOU @ PHX · Phoenix Suns WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–5) (Nov 7, 8:00 PM CT)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Phoenix Suns's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

PHX Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 4 of 5 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-8.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 101.4 vs. 109.5 Posted Team Total)

7 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

NBA Player Props · Verified CLV: 73 Beat / 11 Tied / 36 LostThrough Nov 6 CT

Released Player Props & CLV Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

All NBA Player Props →Audit CSV

HOU @ PHX · PHX · ReboundsFree Dossier Release

Devin Booker · Rebounds

Pick & Line: Under 3.5
Fair Value: 2.5 (-298)
Book: ProphetX (-160)

Booker's heavy minutes have not translated into a large rebounding role.

Prop Dossier →Player History

ProphetX: Under 3.5 (-160)Kalshi · WBIRD1

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	Outcome Tag
#1 Devin Booker PHX · Prev 24.5 (0.0)	24.5	24.2%	22.4%(-1.8% vs Hist)	+2.0	Steady Share
#2 Miles Bridges PHX · Prev 16.5 (-1.0)	15.5	17.8%	14.2%(-3.6% vs Hist)	+1.0	Team Tide Shift
#3 Dillon Brooks PHX · Prev 16.5 (-1.0)	15.5	17.7%	14.2%(-3.5% vs Hist)	0.0	Team Tide Shift
#4 Jalen Green PHX · Prev 16.5 (-1.0)	15.5	11.4%	14.2%(+2.8% vs Hist)	+1.0	Team Tide Shift
#5 Collin Gillespie PHX · Prev 9.5 (-1.0)	8.5	7.3%	7.8%(+0.5% vs Hist)	-1.0	Team Tide Shift

Why is the HOU @ PHX 1st Quarter Moneyline moving?

Vig-free consensus and best partner price

HOU @ PHX 1st Quarter Moneyline Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Market Movement Analysis: HOU @ PHX 1st Quarter Moneyline

NBA First-Quarter Moneylines Closing-Line Value Record (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)

HOU @ PHX · Houston Rockets WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 8:00 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

HOU @ PHX · Phoenix Suns WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–5) (Nov 7, 8:00 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & CLV Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

Devin Booker · Rebounds

HOU @ PHX · Houston Rockets WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 8:00 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

HOU @ PHX · Phoenix Suns WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–5) (Nov 7, 8:00 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & CLV Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

Devin Booker · Rebounds