01 · Fundamental Driver
Passing production
33 AST · 7 GAMES — Podziemski has produced 33 assists across seven appearances. That average supports the target without requiring him to become Golden State's sole offensive organizer.
Posted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 6 games)Free Dossier Release
Brandin Podziemski Assists Prop (Orlando Magic @ Golden State Warriors, ): Fair Line 4.7 (-223) vs 3.5 Market
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
DraftKings: Over 3.5 (-160)Modeled Edge: +12.7% EV · Fair Value 4.7 (-223)
- Pick & Release Line
- OVER 3.5 (-148)
- ProphetX
- Modeled Fair Line
- 4.7
- 1.2 Pt Delta
- Modeled Fair Price
- -223
- +12.7% EV
- Posted Line Drift
- 3.5 → 3.5 (0.0)
- Last 6 Active Games
- Matchup (CT)
- ORL @ GSW
- NBA Props Lane CLV
- 73 / 11 / 36
- Beat / Tied / Lost
Sportsbook Posted Assists Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (4.7 / -223)
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 7), Brandin Podziemski's posted assists line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for ORL @ GSW is 4.7 (-223).
6-Game Posted Assists Ledger (Brandin Podziemski)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSW @ MIN | 3.5 (+105) | — | 6 | Over | |
| LAL @ GSW | 3.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 6 | Over | |
| LAC @ GSW | 4.5 (-108) | +1.0 | 8 | Over | |
| PHX @ GSW | 4.5 (+131) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| MIA @ GSW | 4.5 (+122) | 0.0 | 3 | Under | |
| ORL @ GSW | 3.5 (-148) | -1.0 | — | Fair 4.7 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production6-Game Window
Brandin Podziemski Assists Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Actual output +1.5 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag+1.5Max Single-Game Book Step: -1.0
- Window Open Line
- 3.5
- Current Posted Line
- 3.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 5.0
- Actual Output Delta
- +1.5
- Modeled Fair Value
- 4.7 (-223)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 · @ MIN | 3.5 | — | 6 | +2.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs LAL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +2.5 |
| Nov 1 · vs LAC | 4.5 | +1.0 | 8 | +3.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs PHX | 4.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -2.5 |
| Nov 5 · vs MIA | 4.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -1.5 |
| Nov 7 · vs ORL | 3.5 | -1.0 | — | — |
WagerBird Write-Up · Brandin Podziemski Assists (Over 3.5)
Free Dossier ReleaseWrite-Up Thesis
Podziemski's starter-sized workload and established passing production support four assists.
02 · Fundamental Driver
Time to accumulate chances
33 EXPECTED MIN · 32 MIN LAST GAME — His latest game included a 32-minute shift, close to the expected 33 minutes here. A starter-sized run creates repeated passing opportunities even when other players handle the most demanding creation.
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
Green or Curry can dominate the final pass while Podziemski spends more possessions spotting up. A comfortable lead or missed jumpers can prevent a full workload from becoming enough assists.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WHEN BRANDIN PODZIEMSKI REACHES FOUR ASSISTS, WITH NO PUSH AT THE 3.5 THRESHOLD.
WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftORL @ GSW · Points
ORL @ GSW · Golden State Warriors WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–5) ()
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Golden State Warriors's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
GSW Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 3 of 5 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling
Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)
-30.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 83.4 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76.5 | 91.7% | 83.4 | 113.5 (-110) | -30.1 |
Compare GSW Team Total Partner Quotes:
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Stephen Curry GSW · Prev 28.5 (-2.0) | 26.5 | 32.6% | 23.3%(-9.3% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#2 Yaxel Lendeborg GSW · Prev 18.5 (0.0) | 18.5 | 23.3% | 16.3%(-7.0% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Brandin Podziemski GSW · Prev 16.5 (-1.0) | 15.5 | 16.3% | 13.7%(-2.6% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#4 De'Anthony Melton GSW · Prev 10.5 (-2.0) | 8.5 | 9.7% | 7.5%(-2.2% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Georges Niang GSW · Prev 7.5 (0.0) | 7.5 | 9.8% | 6.6%(-3.2% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share |
Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up
Brandin Podziemski Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)
1 active Brandin Podziemski prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
Brandin Podziemski CLV Counts
0 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
0 Settled CLV Receipts| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | ORL @ GSW | Assists | Over 3.5 (-158) · DraftKings | 3.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |