By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 28 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted Yaxel Lendeborg's posted points line upward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 16.5 to 18.5 (+2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for ORL @ GSW is 20.3 (-188).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSW @ MIN | 16.5 (-107) | — | 26 | Over | |
| LAL @ GSW | 19.5 (-102) | +3.0 | 6 | Under | |
| LAC @ GSW | 19.5 (-118) | 0.0 | 37 | Over | |
| PHX @ GSW | 18.5 (-122) | -1.0 | 16 | Under | |
| MIA @ GSW | 18.5 (-120) | 0.0 | 17 | Under | |
| ORL @ GSW | 18.5 (+100) | 0.0 | — | Fair 20.3 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +3.9 vs. +2.0 book step adjustment (+1.9 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 · @ MIN | 16.5 | — | 26 | +9.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs LAL | 19.5 | +3.0 | 6 | -13.5 |
| Nov 1 · vs LAC | 19.5 | 0.0 | 37 | +17.5 |
| Nov 2 · vs PHX | 18.5 | -1.0 | 16 | -2.5 |
| Nov 5 · vs MIA | 18.5 | 0.0 | 17 | -1.5 |
| Nov 7 · vs ORL | 18.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Lendeborg's shot volume and free-throw opportunities support scoring beyond the posted threshold.
189 PTS · 9 GAMES — Lendeborg has scored 189 points across nine appearances. The 20.3-point central estimate sits below his 21.0 average, so the position does not require his largest scoring performances to repeat.
126 FGA · 58 FTA — His production includes 126 field-goal attempts and 58 free-throw attempts. Trips to the line provide another scoring route when perimeter shots are not falling.
Curry can consume a larger share of the scoring while Lendeborg finishes possessions without taking the shot. Foul trouble or a shortened final rotation can remove the minutes needed to complete his total.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH 18 OR MORE YAXEL LENDEBORG POINTS; 17.5 LEAVES NO PUSH.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Golden State Warriors's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-30.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 83.4 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76.5 | 91.7% | 83.4 | 113.5 (-110) | -30.1 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Stephen Curry GSW · Prev 28.5 (-2.0) | 26.5 | 32.6% | 23.3%(-9.3% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#2 Yaxel Lendeborg GSW · Prev 18.5 (0.0) | 18.5 | 23.3% | 16.3%(-7.0% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Brandin Podziemski GSW · Prev 16.5 (-1.0) | 15.5 | 16.3% | 13.7%(-2.6% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#4 De'Anthony Melton GSW · Prev 10.5 (-2.0) | 8.5 | 9.7% | 7.5%(-2.2% vs Hist) | -2.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Georges Niang GSW · Prev 7.5 (0.0) | 7.5 | 9.8% | 6.6%(-3.2% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share |
1 active Yaxel Lendeborg prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | ORL @ GSW | Points | Over 17.5 (-119) · ProphetX | 18.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |