By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 11 to Oct 28), sportsbooks adjusted Tom Wilson's posted shots on goal line downward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 2.5 to 1.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ WAS is 2.3 (-202).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ WAS | 2.5 (+125) | — | 3 | Over | |
| WAS @ CARReduced-Role Line | 1.5 (-138) | -1.0 | 0 | Under | |
| NJ @ WASReduced-Role Line(Missed 1g) | 1.5 (-160) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| LA @ WASReduced-Role Line | 1.5 (-155) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| BUF @ WASReduced-Role Line | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| PHI @ WAS | 1.5 (-160) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.2 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.2 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 · @ TB | 1.5 | — | 2 | +0.5 |
| Oct 7 · vs PIT | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Oct 9 · vs NYR | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Oct 11 · vs SEA | 2.5 | +1.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 14 · vs MON | — | — | 5 | — |
| Oct 28 · vs PHI | 1.5 | -1.0 | 1 | -0.5 |
Wilson's regular shooting volume and first-unit power-play access support reaching a modest two-shot requirement.
22 SOG / 10 GP · 7 OF 10 WITH 2+ SOG — Wilson has reached the required count in most of his current games without needing an unusually large shooting night. His total volume supports treating the threshold as an ordinary outcome rather than a ceiling performance. [Statistics](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/name/wsh/washington-capitals) · [Game log](https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/gamelog/_/id/2970615/tom-wilson)
18:41 ATOI · PP1 · 18–20 MIN EXPECTED — Wilson's first-unit power-play assignment gives him offensive possessions beyond his regular shifts. His overall workload supplies enough opportunities to reach the threshold even without dominating the team's attempts. [Ice time](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/name/wsh/washington-capitals) · [Deployment](https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations)
Wilson can spend power-play possessions screening the goalie or retrieving the puck rather than taking the shot. His linemates may receive the clean shooting lanes while he works around the crease. Protecting a lead can further reduce his late offensive opportunities.
Settlement Rule: CASHES TOM WILSON OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST TWO OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL. NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Washington Capitals's 5 primary contributors.
| Washington Capitals Contributor | Oct 29 @ NAS | Nov 1 vs MIN | Nov 3 vs DAL | Nov 7 vs FLA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch WAS · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jakob Chychrun WAS · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Strome WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | — | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Ryan Leonard WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Tom Wilson prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | PHI @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-160) · Fanatics | 1.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Wilson's regular shooting volume and first-unit power-play access support reaching a modest two-shot requirement.
Counter-Case: Wilson can spend power-play possessions screening the goalie or retrieving the puck rather than taking the shot. His linemates may receive the clean shooting lanes while he works around the crease. Protecting a lead can further reduce his late offensive opportunities.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |