Posted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 6 games)Settled / Live Release · Full Dossier Unlocked

Ryan Leonard Shots on Goal Prop (Philadelphia Flyers @ Washington Capitals, ): Fair Line 2.5 (-236) vs 1.5 Market

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

Fanatics: Over 1.5 (-150)Modeled Edge: +17.0% EV · Fair Value 2.5 (-236)
Pick & Release Line
OVER 1.5 (-180)
Fanatics
Modeled Fair Line
2.5
1.0 Pt Delta
Modeled Fair Price
-236
+17.0% EV
Posted Line Drift
1.5 → 1.5 (0.0)
Last 6 Active Games
Matchup (CT)
PHI @ WAS
NHL Props Lane CLV
50 / 10 / 21
Beat / Tied / Lost

Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.

Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (2.5 / -236)
Across the last 6 active games (Oct 13 to Oct 28), Ryan Leonard's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ WAS is 2.5 (-236).3.52.92.31.71.10.5WB FAIR LINE: 2.51.52.52.51.51.51.5Oct 13WAS @ CAROct 14MON @ WASOct 17NJ @ WASOct 20LA @ WASOct 24BUF @ WASOct 28PHI @ WAS

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 13 to Oct 28), Ryan Leonard's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ WAS is 2.5 (-236).

6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Ryan Leonard)

America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
WAS @ CAR1.5 (-155)—2Over
MON @ WAS2.5 (+120)+1.02Under
NJ @ WAS2.5 (+140)0.02Under
LA @ WAS1.5 (-160)-1.02Over
BUF @ WAS1.5 (-160)0.03Over
PHI @ WAS1.5 (-180)0.04Over

Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Fanatics: Over 1.5 (-150)DraftKings: Over 1.5 (-180)FanDuel: Over 1.5 (-180)BetMGM: Over 1.5 (-180)Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production6-Game Window

Ryan Leonard Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Actual output +1.0 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.0 Unpriced Book Lag).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag+1.0Max Single-Game Book Step: -1.0
Window Open Line
1.5
Current Posted Line
1.5
Book Cumulative Step
0.0
Actual Window Avg
2.5
Actual Output Delta
+1.0
Modeled Fair Value
2.5 (-236)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
Ryan Leonard Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted Shots on Goal Line vs Actual Box-Score Output512Oct 13@ CAR2Oct 14vs MON2Oct 17vs NJ2Oct 20vs LA3Oct 24vs BUF4Oct 28vs PHI
Game (CT)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Oct 13 · @ CAR1.5—2+0.5
Oct 14 · vs MON2.5+1.02-0.5
Oct 17 · vs NJ2.50.02-0.5
Oct 20 · vs LA1.5-1.02+0.5
Oct 24 · vs BUF1.50.03+1.5
Oct 28 · vs PHI1.50.04+2.5

WagerBird Write-Up · Ryan Leonard Shots on Goal (Over 1.5)

Full Dossier Unlocked
Write-Up Thesis

Leonard's established shooting rate and additional power-play access give him multiple routes to the required second shot.

01 · Fundamental Driver

Volume across seasons

25 SOG / 10 GP · 153 SOG / 75 GP PRIOR — Leonard's current shooting rate is stronger than his prior-season rate, but both support a modest shot requirement rather than an exceptional individual performance. The historical volume provides support beyond the opening stretch of the season. [Statistics](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/name/wsh/washington-capitals) · [Prior season](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/teams/WAS/washington-capitals/stats)

02 · Fundamental Driver

Another route to attempts

14:18 ATOI · PP2 · 14–15 MIN EXPECTED — Leonard supplements his depth-group shifts with work on the second power-play unit. That assignment can supply shooting opportunities without requiring his even-strength group to dominate possession. [Deployment](https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations) · [Ice time](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/name/wsh/washington-capitals)

Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors

Thesis Invalidation Risks

A quiet opening stretch can be difficult to recover from when his even-strength group receives limited shifts. Few penalties can leave the reserve power-play group without enough time to generate additional attempts. A lead can also turn later possessions into shorter, lower-pressure attacks.

Settlement Rule: CASHES RYAN LEONARD OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST TWO OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL. NO PUSH ON THE HALF.

WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal

PHI @ WAS · Washington Capitals Shots on Goal Nucleus Drift ()

Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Washington Capitals's 5 primary contributors.

WAS Nucleus Drift5 of 5 Core Props Held FlatBalanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Washington Capitals Contributor
Oct 29
@ NAS
Nov 1
vs MIN
Nov 3
vs DAL
Nov 7
vs FLA
Game-Over-Game MovePosted Line TrendTrend Badge
Alex Tuch
WAS · Shots on Goal
2.52.52.52.50.0Flat →
Jakob Chychrun
WAS · Shots on Goal
2.52.52.52.50.0Flat →
Dylan Strome
WAS · Shots on Goal
1.51.51.51.50.0Flat →
Pierre-Luc Dubois
WAS · Shots on Goal
1.5—1.51.50.0Flat →
Ryan Leonard
WAS · Shots on Goal
1.52.51.5—0.0Flat →
Washington Capitals (WAS)5 of 5 Core Props Held Flat

Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral

Philadelphia Flyers (PHI)1 of 5 Core Props Adjusted Down

Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team dossiers.
Washington Capitals team page →
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Ryan Leonard Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Ryan Leonard prop write-up.

Ryan Leonard CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt
Date (CT)MatchupMarketRelease QuoteClosing LineActualCLV GradeWrite-Up
Oct 28PHI @ WASShots on GoalOver 1.5 (-150) · Fanatics1.54BeatRead Write-Up →

Archived Settled Ryan Leonard Prop Write-Ups

Oct 28 CT · PHI @ WAS · Shots on GoalFull Write-Up →

Leonard's established shooting rate and additional power-play access give him multiple routes to the required second shot.

Counter-Case: A quiet opening stretch can be difficult to recover from when his even-strength group receives limited shifts. Few penalties can leave the reserve power-play group without enough time to generate additional attempts. A lead can also turn later possessions into shorter, lower-pressure attacks.

NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowBeat CloseTied CloseLost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)501021
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)48921