By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 13 to Oct 28), Dylan Strome's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ WAS is 2.3 (-202).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS @ CAR | 1.5 (+110) | — | 1 | Under | |
| MON @ WAS | 1.5 (-145) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| NJ @ WAS | 1.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| LA @ WAS | 1.5 (-125) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| BUF @ WAS | 1.5 (-130) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| PHI @ WAS | 1.5 (-145) | 0.0 | 2 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.2 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.2 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 · @ CAR | 1.5 | — | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 14 · vs MON | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Oct 17 · vs NJ | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Oct 20 · vs LA | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +2.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs BUF | 1.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +3.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs PHI | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
Strome's increased current shooting rate and first-unit power-play involvement provide enough opportunity to reach the second shot.
24 SOG / 10 GP · 143 SOG / 80 GP PRIOR — Strome is shooting more frequently than he did over the prior season. The historical rate tempers expectations, while the current rate still supplies room to reach the required count without a standout performance. [Current statistics](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/name/wsh/washington-capitals) · [Prior season](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/teams/WAS/washington-capitals/stats)
17:23 ATOI · PP1 · 17–19 MIN EXPECTED — Strome's projected placement between Tuch and Kyrou keeps him involved in an offensive unit. First-unit power-play work provides further opportunities to take an available lane himself rather than relying entirely on even-strength attempts. [Ice time](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/name/wsh/washington-capitals) · [Deployment](https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations)
Strome can generate offense by feeding Tuch and Kyrou without taking enough shots himself. Power-play possessions can instead finish with Ovechkin or Chychrun. A favorable scoreboard can encourage puck management and distribution rather than additional attempts.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DYLAN STROME OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST TWO OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL. NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Washington Capitals's 5 primary contributors.
| Washington Capitals Contributor | Oct 29 @ NAS | Nov 1 vs MIN | Nov 3 vs DAL | Nov 7 vs FLA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch WAS · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jakob Chychrun WAS · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Strome WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | — | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Ryan Leonard WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Dylan Strome prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | PHI @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-164) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Strome's increased current shooting rate and first-unit power-play involvement provide enough opportunity to reach the second shot.
Counter-Case: Strome can generate offense by feeding Tuch and Kyrou without taking enough shots himself. Power-play possessions can instead finish with Ovechkin or Chychrun. A favorable scoreboard can encourage puck management and distribution rather than additional attempts.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |