By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 13 to Oct 28), sportsbooks adjusted Alex Tuch's posted shots on goal line upward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 1.5 to 2.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ WAS is 2.9 (-119).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS @ CARReduced-Role Line | 1.5 | — | 1 | Under | |
| MON @ WAS | 2.5 (+122) | +1.0 | 3 | Over | |
| NJ @ WAS | 2.5 (+130) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| LA @ WAS | 2.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| BUF @ WAS | 2.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| PHI @ WAS | 2.5 (+106) | 0.0 | 5 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 · vs SEA | 2.5 | — | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 14 · vs MON | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 17 · vs NJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 20 · vs LA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs BUF | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs PHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
Tuch's current shooting workload and substantial ice time put the required third shot within his ordinary range of outcomes.
27 SOG / 10 GP · 19:10 ATOI — Tuch is generating regular attempts while receiving substantial ice time. The required shot count calls for a modest improvement on his current average rather than a dramatic increase in involvement. [Statistics](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/name/wsh/washington-capitals)
STROME–TUCH–KYROU · PP2 · 19–20 MIN EXPECTED — Tuch shares his projected unit with Strome and Kyrou, creating opportunities to finish possessions developed by that group. His second-unit power-play assignment offers an additional route to attempts outside those even-strength shifts. [Deployment](https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations)
Strome and Kyrou can consume the available attempts before Tuch gets a finishing touch. The second power-play group may receive little time behind the first unit. Quick finishes by teammates can also eliminate rebound opportunities that would otherwise add to his shot count.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ALEX TUCH OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST THREE OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL. NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Washington Capitals's 5 primary contributors.
| Washington Capitals Contributor | Oct 29 @ NAS | Nov 1 vs MIN | Nov 3 vs DAL | Nov 7 vs FLA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch WAS · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jakob Chychrun WAS · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Strome WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | — | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Ryan Leonard WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Alex Tuch prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | PHI @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+125) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 5 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Tuch's current shooting workload and substantial ice time put the required third shot within his ordinary range of outcomes.
Counter-Case: Strome and Kyrou can consume the available attempts before Tuch gets a finishing touch. The second power-play group may receive little time behind the first unit. Quick finishes by teammates can also eliminate rebound opportunities that would otherwise add to his shot count.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |