By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 13 to Oct 28), Jakob Chychrun's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ WAS is 3.2 (-156).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS @ CAR | 2.5 (+125) | — | 2 | Under | |
| MON @ WAS | 2.5 (-104) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| NJ @ WAS | 2.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| LA @ WAS | 2.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| BUF @ WAS | 2.5 (-110) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| PHI @ WAS | 2.5 (-110) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (0.0).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13 · @ CAR | 2.5 | — | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 14 · vs MON | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 17 · vs NJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 20 · vs LA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs BUF | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs PHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
Chychrun's substantial minutes and first-unit power-play assignment sustain a shooting workload above the posted threshold.
31 SOG / 10 GP · 221 SOG / 80 GP PRIOR — Chychrun's current and prior-season shot rates both exceed the posted threshold. His production does not require a sudden change from a low-volume role to a shooting role. [Current statistics](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/name/wsh/washington-capitals) · [Prior season](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/teams/WAS/washington-capitals/stats)
24:40 ATOI · PP1 · 24–25 MIN EXPECTED — Chychrun's workload gives him repeated chances to collect attempts across even-strength and power-play possessions. Running with the first power-play group adds opportunities to receive the puck in established offensive-zone formations. [Ice time](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/name/wsh/washington-capitals) · [Deployment](https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations)
Point attempts can be blocked before reaching the net, while a teammate's redirection can take the registered shot away from him. The forwards may finish possessions before the puck returns to the blue line. A comfortable lead can reduce the need for repeated attacking-zone pressure.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JAKOB CHYCHRUN OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST THREE OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL. NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Washington Capitals's 5 primary contributors.
| Washington Capitals Contributor | Oct 29 @ NAS | Nov 1 vs MIN | Nov 3 vs DAL | Nov 7 vs FLA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch WAS · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jakob Chychrun WAS · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dylan Strome WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | — | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Ryan Leonard WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 2 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Jakob Chychrun prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | PHI @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-120) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | NJ @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-120) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Chychrun's substantial minutes and first-unit power-play assignment sustain a shooting workload above the posted threshold.
Counter-Case: Point attempts can be blocked before reaching the net, while a teammate's redirection can take the registered shot away from him. The forwards may finish possessions before the puck returns to the blue line. A comfortable lead can reduce the need for repeated attacking-zone pressure.
Chychrun's heavy workload and first-unit power-play role sustain a three-shot route despite New Jersey's suppression.
Counter-Case: New Jersey can deny clean entries and get bodies into Chychrun's first shooting lane. Washington's power play can also finish through its forwards before he produces enough shots himself.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |