By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 5 active games (Oct 9 to Oct 17), Jakob Chychrun's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for NJ @ WAS is 2.9 (-120).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR @ WAS | 2.5 (+104) | — | 3 | Over | |
| SEA @ WAS | 2.5 (-120) | 0.0 | 8 | Over | |
| WAS @ CAR | 2.5 (+125) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| MON @ WAS | 2.5 (-104) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| NJ @ WAS | 2.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.3).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 · vs PIT | 2.5 | — | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 9 · vs NYR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 11 · vs SEA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 8 | +5.5 |
| Oct 13 · @ CAR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 14 · vs MON | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 17 · vs NJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
Chychrun's heavy workload and first-unit power-play role sustain a three-shot route despite New Jersey's suppression.
21 SOG · 7 GP — Chychrun has 21 shots through seven games after recording 221 in 80 last season. His established willingness to shoot provides a volume foundation even when the opponent reduces overall chances.
24:26 ATOI · PP1 — He averages 24:26 and holds a first-unit power-play assignment. The combination supplies both ordinary point-shot opportunities and extra-skater possessions with more time to release.
New Jersey can deny clean entries and get bodies into Chychrun's first shooting lane. Washington's power play can also finish through its forwards before he produces enough shots himself.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JAKOB CHYCHRUN OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH AT THIS LINE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Washington Capitals's 5 primary contributors.
| Washington Capitals Contributor | Oct 29 @ NAS | Nov 1 vs MIN | Nov 3 vs DAL | Nov 7 vs FLA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Chychrun WAS · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Alex Tuch WAS · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Ryan Leonard WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Alex Ovechkin WAS · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | — | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Tom Wilson WAS · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 2 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Jakob Chychrun prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | PHI @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-120) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | NJ @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-120) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Chychrun's substantial minutes and first-unit power-play assignment sustain a shooting workload above the posted threshold.
Counter-Case: Point attempts can be blocked before reaching the net, while a teammate's redirection can take the registered shot away from him. The forwards may finish possessions before the puck returns to the blue line. A comfortable lead can reduce the need for repeated attacking-zone pressure.
Chychrun's heavy workload and first-unit power-play role sustain a three-shot route despite New Jersey's suppression.
Counter-Case: New Jersey can deny clean entries and get bodies into Chychrun's first shooting lane. Washington's power play can also finish through its forwards before he produces enough shots himself.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |