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NFL · TotalMarket MovementKickoff Market Move: Over 46.5 → 47 (+0.5 pts)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons Total Odds, Line Movement & Market Release (Nov 15)

Prices as of .

By WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. · NJ DGE Vendor #0096475

Released · Updated

Desk Status
No Release · Market Movement Only
Current Consensus across 45 books
47.5 (20 consensus books · 45 tracked)
Market Move
46.5 to 47 (0.5 pts toward Over)
Lane closing-line timing
Ahead: 15 · At close: 1 · Behind: 6 (22 measured)

Market-Implied Projection (Vig-Free Consensus)

Implied Win Probability
KC 61.9% · ATL 38.1%
Consensus Spread
ATL +3.5
Consensus Total
47.5
Market-Implied Score
KC 25.5 – ATL 22

Market Brief: KC @ ATL Total

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons Total: vig-free consensus stands at Over 47.5 +104 / Under 47.5 -104 across 20 consensus sportsbooks (45 total books tracked as of Thu, Nov 12, 9:04 PM ET). Best price per side: Over 46.5 -110 at DraftKings; Under 47.5 -107 at ProphetX.

Since open (Sun, Nov 8, 8:30 PM ET), the line moved from 46.5 to 47 toward Over (0.5 pts) across 47 sportsbooks. WAGERBIRD has no release on this market; this page tracks the pre-kickoff consensus movement (Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET).

What is the KC @ ATL total consensus line and best price per side?

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons Total: vig-free consensus stands at Over 47.5 +104 / Under 47.5 -104 across 20 consensus sportsbooks (45 total books tracked as of Thu, Nov 12, 9:04 PM ET). Best price per side: Over 46.5 -110 at DraftKings; Under 47.5 -107 at ProphetX.

How has the KC @ ATL total moved from open to current?

Since open (Sun, Nov 8, 8:30 PM ET), the line moved from 46.5 to 47 toward Over (0.5 pts) across 47 sportsbooks.

What is the locked release status for KC @ ATL total?

WAGERBIRD has no release on this market; this page tracks the pre-kickoff consensus movement (Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET).

Why is the KC @ ATL total moving?

  • Market line moved 1.0 pt toward Over across 11 tracked sportsbooks.
  • Market line moved 1.0 pt toward Over across 21 tracked sportsbooks.
  • Market consensus moved from 46.5 to 47.5 toward Over across 12 tracked sportsbooks.
  • Market consensus moved from 47 to 47.5 toward Over across 17 tracked sportsbooks.

Vig-free consensus and best partner price

Over
Vig-free consensus 47.5 +104 (49% across 20 books)
Best price: 46.5 -110 at DraftKings
Under
Vig-free consensus 47.5 -104 (51% across 20 books)
Best price: 47.5 -107 at ProphetX

KC @ ATL Total Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

SportsbookOverUnderExecution
BetMGM47-11047-108BetMGM
Caesars47.5+10047.5-120Caesars
DraftKings46.5-11046.5-110DraftKings
FanDuel47.5-10547.5-115FanDuel
Fanatics47-11047-110Fanatics
ProphetX47.5-10247.5-107ProphetX

Full market: 45 sportsbooks, consensus 47.5. Links shown for licensed books we work with.

Market Movement Analysis: KC @ ATL Total

The Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons total opened at 46.5 on WAGERBIRD's per-book price tape (first recorded Sun, Nov 8, 8:30 PM ET) and currently sits at 47 across 47 tracked sportsbooks, representing a net move of 0.5 pts, with net market movement toward Over. Scheduled kickoff is Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Thu, Nov 12, 9:04 PM ET.

At Wed, Nov 11, 1:14 PM ET, 11 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward Over by a median of 1.0 pt. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons total.

At Wed, Nov 11, 8:29 PM ET, 21 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward Over by a median of 1.0 pt. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons total.

At Wed, Nov 11, 10:14 PM ET, the market consensus moved through 47, shifting from 46.5 to 47.5 toward Over. Because final scoring margins and game totals frequently land on common scoring increments, moving across 47 materially alters the vig-free win probability for both sides of the number.

At Thu, Nov 12, 4:45 AM ET, the market consensus moved through 47, shifting from 47 to 47.5 toward Over. Because final scoring margins and game totals frequently land on common scoring increments, moving across 47 materially alters the vig-free win probability for both sides of the number.

Across the 45 sportsbooks currently quoting the Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons total, the top-to-bottom market spread is 1.0 pt, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.

Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 20-book consensus prices Over at 47.5 +104 (49.0% vig-free probability) and Under at 47.5 -104 (51.0% vig-free probability).

Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: Over 46.5 -110 at DraftKings; Under 47.5 -107 at ProphetX.

In the NFL game totals betting lane, every WAGERBIRD release is settled on the final score. Closing Line Value (CLV) against the release book's closing line: Ahead of close: 15 · At the close: 1 · Behind close: 6 (22 measured through 2026-11-11). Every historical settled release can be verified in the downloadable CSV audit log below.

NFL Game Totals Closing Line Value (CLV)

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Lane Closing Line Value (CLV): 71.4% of moved lines ahead of close (15 Ahead of close · 1 At the close · 6 Behind close) · Sept 24–Nov 9

Release Record — NFL game totals, since Sept 24 (Sept 24–Nov 9): 15-7, +21.7u

WindowAheadAt closeBehindMeasured
Season to date151622
Last 30 days111517

Every release is settled on the final score. Closing-line timing compares each release's line and price with the pre-kickoff closing number at the sportsbook where it was posted; it measures entry timing, not the result (settled releases through 2026-11-11). Of releases where the line moved, 71% finished ahead of the close.

Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)

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Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (Total) attributed to WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):

<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-at-atlanta-falcons-total-2026-11-15-35145" title="Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons Total Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WAGERBIRD" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs-at-atlanta-falcons-total-2026-11-15-35145">KC @ ATL Total Vig-Free Odds &amp; Implied Probability</a> by WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>