By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 4 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 26), Alperen Sengun's posted assists line has held net flat at 4.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for ATL @ HOU is 6.0 (-251).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL @ HOU | 4.5 (-135) | — | 5 | Over | |
| HOU @ SAS | 4.5 (-138) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| HOU @ ATL | 5.5 (+105) | +1.0 | 7 | Over | |
| ATL @ HOU | 4.5 (-140) | -1.0 | 9 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +2.5 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+2.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs DAL | 4.5 | — | 5 | +0.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ SAS | 4.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +2.5 |
| Oct 24 · @ ATL | 5.5 | +1.0 | 7 | +1.5 |
| Oct 26 · vs ATL | 4.5 | -1.0 | 9 | +4.5 |
Sengun's established passing workload can produce five assists without requiring a scoring spike.
6.2 AST · 33.3 MIN LAST SEASON — Sengun averaged 6.2 assists in 33.3 minutes last season. [Houston notes](https://www.nba.com/gamenotes/rockets.pdf) That production establishes a sustained passing role rather than a need for an unusually productive shooting night.
5, 7, 7 AST · 3 GAMES — His first three games produced 5, 7 and 7 assists, including seven against Atlanta. [Houston notes](https://www.nba.com/gamenotes/rockets.pdf) [Previous meeting](https://africa.espn.com/nba/boxscore/_/gameId/401909856) A normal starter workload gives him repeated opportunities to find a cutter or perimeter receiver when an interior touch draws help.
VanVleet can direct more possessions from the perimeter, leaving Sengun to finish rather than make the final pass. Atlanta can stay with his receivers, while missed jump shots can prevent useful passes from becoming assists.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ALPEREN SENGUN OVER 4.5 ASSISTS WITH 5 OR MORE ASSISTS · NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Houston Rockets's 5 primary contributors.
| Houston Rockets Contributor | Oct 31 vs OKC | Nov 2 vs BOS | Nov 4 vs MIN | Nov 7 @ PHX | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant HOU · Points | 22.5 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Alperen Sengun HOU · Points | 18.5 | 17.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Amen Thompson HOU · Points | 16.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. HOU · Points | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Fred VanVleet HOU · Points | — | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Alperen Sengun prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | MIN @ HOU | Points | Over 19.5 (-109) · Caesars | 19.5 | 17 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Nov 2 | BOS @ HOU | Points | Over 17.5 (-121) · DraftKings | 17.5 | 26 | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 26 | ATL @ HOU | Assists | Over 4.5 (-128) · ProphetX | 4.5 | 9 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 23 | HOU @ SAS | Points | Over 17.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 17.5 | 29 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Sengun's shot volume and Houston's depleted center depth support the workload needed to reach twenty points.
Counter-Case: Gobert can hold his ground without help and push Sengun toward contested finishes. Early fouls or repeated kick-outs to shooters can replace the shot attempts needed to reach twenty points.
Sengun's established shot and free-throw volume can support a normal scoring night without repeating his early-season peak.
Counter-Case: Renewed back discomfort or early fouls could shorten Sengun's night. Boston can pressure his post touches and make passing the better option. A restrained Houston scoring night leaves less room for missed interior attempts.
Sengun's established passing workload can produce five assists without requiring a scoring spike.
Counter-Case: VanVleet can direct more possessions from the perimeter, leaving Sengun to finish rather than make the final pass. Atlanta can stay with his receivers, while missed jump shots can prevent useful passes from becoming assists.
Sengun's established shot volume supports reaching eighteen points without repeating his opening-game shooting efficiency.
Counter-Case: San Antonio can use Wembanyama's length to force Sengun away from clean interior finishes and toward passes. Durant and Smith can take a larger share of Houston's shots, leaving Sengun short despite a competitive game.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |