NBA · 1st Quarter MoneylineMarket MovementKickoff Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM CTMarket Move: GSW (+2.2% implied prob)ES-MX: Momios Sin Vig

Why is the ORL @ GSW 1st Quarter Moneyline moving?

Name: Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors First-quarter moneyline: Vig-Free Consensus, Modeled Fair Value & Closing-Line Value Telemetry
Creator: WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk
Published: 2026-11-07T19:16:21.509Z

Prices as of Sat, Nov 7, 3:29 PM CT.

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released Sat, Nov 7, 1:16 PM CT · Last updated (CT) Sat, Nov 7, 2:52 PM CT

WagerBird Signal Status: - No Pick (Market Movement)
Current Consensus across 21 books: ORL +147 (21 consensus books · 21 tracked)
Market Move: GSW 60.8% to 63.0% (2.2% implied probability toward GSW)
Lane CLV record: NBA first-quarter moneylines: 0 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost (0 measured)

Why is the ORL @ GSW 1st Quarter Moneyline moving?

Sat, Nov 7, 9:38 AM CTMarket consensus updated (2.4% implied probability) toward ORL across 5 tracked sportsbooks.

ORL

Vig-free consensus +147 (40.5% across 21 books)

Best price: +140 at Caesars

GSW

Vig-free consensus -147 (59.5% across 21 books)

Best price: -164 at FanDuel

ORL @ GSW 1st Quarter Moneyline Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Sportsbook	ORL	GSW	Updated (CT)	Execution
BetMGM	+135	-165	Sat, Nov 7, 3:28 PM CT	BetMGM
Caesars	+140	-170	Sat, Nov 7, 3:07 PM CT	Caesars
DraftKings	+140	-166	Sat, Nov 7, 3:28 PM CT	DraftKings
FanDuel	+134	-164	Sat, Nov 7, 3:27 PM CT	FanDuel
Fanatics	+130	-170	Sat, Nov 7, 3:28 PM CT	Fanatics

Full market: 21 sportsbooks, consensus ORL +147. Links shown for licensed books we work with.

Trade on Kalshi · Code: WBIRD1

Market Movement Analysis: ORL @ GSW 1st Quarter Moneyline

The Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors first-quarter moneyline opened at 60.8% implied probability for GSW on WagerBird's per-book price tape (first recorded Fri, Nov 6, 11:58 PM CT) and currently sits at 63.0% implied probability for GSW across 21 tracked sportsbooks, representing a net move of 2.2% implied probability, with net market movement toward GSW. Scheduled kickoff is Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Sat, Nov 7, 3:29 PM CT.

At Sat, Nov 7, 9:38 AM CT, 5 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward ORL by a median of 2.4% implied probability. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors first-quarter moneyline.

Across the 21 sportsbooks currently quoting the Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors first-quarter moneyline, the top-to-bottom market spread is 5.8% implied probability, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.

Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 21-book consensus prices ORL at +147 (40.5% vig-free probability) and GSW at -147 (59.5% vig-free probability).

Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: ORL +140 at Caesars; GSW -164 at FanDuel.

WagerBird tracks closing-line value (Beat / Tied / Lost against the release sportsbook's closing number) across every NBA first-quarter moneylines release; the full historical audit CSV is available for download below.

NBA First-Quarter Moneylines Closing-Line Value Record (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)

Window	Beat	Tied	Lost	Measured	Beat %
Season to date	0	0	0	0	-
Last 30 days	0	0	0	0	-

WagerBird measures closing-line value (CLV) by comparing each pick's release line and price against the pre-kickoff closing number at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released (settled picks through 2026-11-06).

Preview Live Widget

Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors (1st Quarter Moneyline) attributed to WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):

<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/nba/orlando-magic-at-golden-state-warriors-1q-moneyline-2026-11-07-34195" title="Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors 1st Quarter Moneyline Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WagerBird" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/nba/orlando-magic-at-golden-state-warriors-1q-moneyline-2026-11-07-34195">ORL @ GSW 1st Quarter Moneyline Vig-Free Odds &amp; Implied Probability</a> by WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>

WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftORL @ GSW · Points

ORL @ GSW · Orlando Magic WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Orlando Magic's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

ORL Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 5 of 6 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted UpTeam Tide Shift (Bullish): Market Expanding Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

+2.2 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 108.7 vs. 106.5 Posted Team Total)

6 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

Core-6 Sum	Core-6 Share	Implied Total	Posted Total	Reconciliation Gap
100.0	92.0%	108.7	106.5 (-104)	+2.2

Compare ORL Team Total Partner Quotes:

FanDuel 106.5 (O -118)DraftKings 106.5 (O -104)BetMGM 106.5 (O -110)Caesars 106.5 (O -110)Kalshi (Code WBIRD1)

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	6G Trend	Outcome Tag
#1 Franz Wagner ORL · Prev 23.5 (+1.0)	24.5	20.0%	23.0%(+3.0% vs Hist)	+1.0		Team Tide Shift
#2 Desmond Bane ORL · Prev 20.5 (-1.0)

Orlando Magic (ORL)Team Tide Shift

+2.2 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 108.7 vs. 106.5 Posted Team Total)

Golden State Warriors (GSW)Team Tide Shift

-30.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 83.4 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)

Connected Matchup Hubs: Explore full game market consensus and team pages.

Orlando Magic team page →

WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift · Team Tide ShiftORL @ GSW · Points

ORL @ GSW · Golden State Warriors WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–5) (Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT)

Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Golden State Warriors's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.

GSW Rotation Mode: Team Tide ShiftTeam Tide Shift: 3 of 5 Core-6 Scorers Adjusted DownTeam Tide Shift (Bearish): Market Compressing Core-6 Scoring Ceiling

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

-30.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 83.4 vs. 113.5 Posted Team Total)

7 Licensed Books Quoting Team Total

NBA Player Props · Verified CLV: 73 Beat / 11 Tied / 36 LostThrough Nov 6 CT

Released Player Props & CLV Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

All NBA Player Props →Audit CSV

ORL @ GSW · ORL · AssistsFree Dossier Release

Franz Wagner · Assists

Pick & Line: Over 7.5
Fair Value: 8.1 (-249)
Book: Fanatics (+118)

Wagner's central creation role and Carter's finishing give him a credible path beyond six assists.

Prop Dossier →Player History

Fanatics: Over 7.5 (+110)Kalshi · WBIRD1

ORL @ GSW · GSW · AssistsFree Dossier Release

Brandin Podziemski · Assists

Pick & Line: Over 3.5
Fair Value: 4.7 (-223)
Book: DraftKings (-148)

Podziemski's starter-sized workload and established passing production support four assists.

Prop Dossier →Player History

DraftKings: Over 3.5 (-160)Kalshi · WBIRD1

ORL @ GSW · GSW · PointsFree Dossier Release

Yaxel Lendeborg · Points

Pick & Line: Over 18.5
Fair Value: 20.3 (-188)
Book: ProphetX (+100)

Lendeborg's shot volume and free-throw opportunities support scoring beyond the posted threshold.

Prop Dossier →Player History

ProphetX: Over 17.5 (-128)Kalshi · WBIRD1

Core-6 Player	Tonight Line	Team Scoring Share %	Tonight's Implied Prop Share %	6-Game Line Drift	Outcome Tag
#1 Stephen Curry GSW · Prev 28.5 (-2.0)	26.5	32.6%	23.3%(-9.3% vs Hist)	+2.0	Team Tide Shift
#2 Yaxel Lendeborg GSW · Prev 18.5 (0.0)	18.5	23.3%	16.3%(-7.0% vs Hist)	+2.0	Steady Share
#3 Brandin Podziemski GSW · Prev 16.5 (-1.0)	15.5	16.3%	13.7%(-2.6% vs Hist)	0.0	Team Tide Shift
#4 De'Anthony Melton GSW · Prev 10.5 (-2.0)	8.5	9.7%	7.5%(-2.2% vs Hist)	-2.0	Team Tide Shift
#5 Georges Niang GSW · Prev 7.5 (0.0)	7.5	9.8%	6.6%(-3.2% vs Hist)	+1.0	Steady Share

Why is the ORL @ GSW 1st Quarter Moneyline moving?

Vig-free consensus and best partner price

ORL @ GSW 1st Quarter Moneyline Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

Market Movement Analysis: ORL @ GSW 1st Quarter Moneyline

NBA First-Quarter Moneylines Closing-Line Value Record (0 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)

ORL @ GSW · Orlando Magic WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

ORL @ GSW · Golden State Warriors WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–5) (Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & CLV Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

Franz Wagner · Assists

Brandin Podziemski · Assists

Yaxel Lendeborg · Points

ORL @ GSW · Orlando Magic WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–6) (Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

ORL @ GSW · Golden State Warriors WagerBird Core-6 Allocation Drift (Players 1–5) (Nov 7, 7:30 PM CT)

Team Total Reconciliation Gap (Bottom-Up Core-6 Prop Sum vs. Posted Team Total)

Released Player Props & CLV Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

Franz Wagner · Assists

Brandin Podziemski · Assists

Yaxel Lendeborg · Points