By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 26 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted Devin Booker's posted rebounds line downward in 1 of 5 game-over-game steps from 4.5 to 3.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for HOU @ PHX is 2.5 (-298).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX @ OKC | 4.5 (+125) | — | 2 | Under | |
| DEN @ PHX | 4.5 (+130) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| PHX @ GSW | 3.5 (-145) | -1.0 | 3 | Under | |
| POR @ PHX | 3.5 (-130) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| ORL @ PHX | 3.5 (-106) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| HOU @ PHX | 3.5 (-160) | 0.0 | — | Fair 2.5 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted -1.0 vs. -2.7 actual output delta (-1.7 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 · @ OKC | 4.5 | — | 2 | -2.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs DEN | 4.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -2.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ GSW | 3.5 | -1.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs POR | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Nov 5 · vs ORL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Nov 7 · vs HOU | 3.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Booker's heavy minutes have not translated into a large rebounding role.
1, 1, 3 REB · LAST 3 — Booker's latest rebound totals were 1, 1 and 3 despite playing 34, 34 and 35 minutes. The low counts therefore do not require an assumption that his usual starting workload disappears.
20 REB · 7 GAMES — Booker collected 20 rebounds in seven appearances and finished with three or fewer in five of them. A projected 35-minute stint can still leave most possession-ending work to Phoenix's larger players.
Long misses can bounce directly toward Booker while the bigger defenders remain occupied near the rim. Fouls for Phoenix's frontcourt can also pull him into more interior rebounding work, and a faster game supplies additional chances.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DEVIN BOOKER FULL GAME REBOUNDS UNDER 3.5 WITH 3 OR FEWER REBOUNDS; NO PUSH.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Phoenix Suns's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-8.1 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 101.4 vs. 109.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79.5 | 78.4% | 101.4 | 109.5 (-104) | -8.1 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Devin Booker PHX · Prev 24.5 (0.0) | 24.5 | 24.2% | 22.4%(-1.8% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Miles Bridges PHX · Prev 16.5 (-1.0) | 15.5 | 17.8% | 14.2%(-3.6% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#3 Dillon Brooks PHX · Prev 16.5 (-1.0) | 15.5 | 17.7% | 14.2%(-3.5% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#4 Jalen Green PHX · Prev 16.5 (-1.0) | 15.5 | 11.4% | 14.2%(+2.8% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Collin Gillespie PHX · Prev 9.5 (-1.0) | 8.5 | 7.3% | 7.8%(+0.5% vs Hist) | -1.0 | Team Tide Shift |
1 active Devin Booker prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | HOU @ PHX | Rebounds | Under 3.5 (-160) · ProphetX | — | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |