By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 10 to Oct 15), Brandon Hagel's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for SEA @ TB is 4 (-132).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ NYI | 3.5 (+130) | — | 6 | Over | |
| TB @ NYR | 2.5 (-150) | -1.0 | 1 | Under | |
| SEA @ TB | 3.5 (+125) | +1.0 | 6 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.5 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 · vs WAS | 3.5 | — | 6 | +2.5 |
| Oct 5 · vs PHI | 2.5 | -1.0 | 8 | +5.5 |
| Oct 8 · vs MIN | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ NYI | 3.5 | +1.0 | 6 | +2.5 |
| Oct 13 · @ NYR | 2.5 | -1.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 15 · vs SEA | 3.5 | +1.0 | 6 | +2.5 |
Hagel's elevated ice time, substantial shooting share and first-unit power-play role provide multiple routes to four shots.
27 SOG · 6 GP · 21:53 ATOI — Hagel has taken 27 shots in six games while averaging 21:53, above his previous 19:46 allocation. Those additional shifts create more opportunities to carry the puck into shooting positions rather than relying on a single productive sequence.
PP1 · SEATTLE 30.6 SA/G — Hagel plays alongside Cirelli and Guentzel and also joins Tampa Bay's first power-play unit. Seattle's 30.6 shots allowed per game supports opportunities at both even strength and on the man advantage.
Seattle can close Hagel's entry lanes and turn his slot possessions into passes. A Tampa Bay lead managed through slower possession can reduce his late shooting opportunities and leave him at three shots.
Settlement Rule: CASHES BRANDON HAGEL OVER 3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 4 OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Tampa Bay Lightning's 5 primary contributors.
| Tampa Bay Lightning Contributor | Oct 31 @ NAS | Nov 3 vs DET | Nov 5 vs CHI | Nov 7 @ MIN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel TB · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Nikita Kucherov TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| John Carlson TB · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Brayden Point TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jake Guentzel TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Brandon Hagel prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | SEA @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+125) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | TB @ NYR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-160) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 8 | MIN @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-160) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Hagel's elevated ice time, substantial shooting share and first-unit power-play role provide multiple routes to four shots.
Counter-Case: Seattle can close Hagel's entry lanes and turn his slot possessions into passes. A Tampa Bay lead managed through slower possession can reduce his late shooting opportunities and leave him at three shots.
Hagel's expanded minutes and first-unit offensive deployment support enough individual attempts to reach three shots on goal.
Counter-Case: New York can push Hagel's shooting lanes toward blocks and force him to distribute to Guentzel instead. A Tampa lead can turn his late shifts into possession protection rather than repeated attempts on net.
Hagel's established shooting volume and early-season activity support at least three shots.
Counter-Case: An early Tampa Bay lead could reduce Hagel's late-game need to shoot. He can instead set up Cirelli or Guentzel, and missed or blocked attempts would not count as shots on goal.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |