By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 10 to Oct 15), Jake Guentzel's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for SEA @ TB is 3 (-138).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ NYI | 2.5 (-105) | — | 4 | Over | |
| TB @ NYR | 2.5 (-104) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| SEA @ TB | 2.5 (-110) | 0.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (0.0).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 · vs WAS | 2.5 | — | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 5 · vs PHI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 8 · vs MIN | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ NYI | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 13 · @ NYR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 15 · vs SEA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
Guentzel's sustained wing minutes and top-unit deployment support three shots against Seattle's elevated shot allowance.
220 PRIOR SOG · 20:30 CURRENT ATOI — Guentzel's previous season supplied 220 shots in 81 games, and his current 20:30 playing time is close to that season's 20:15. The comparable workload supports repeated chances rather than requiring an unusual increase in ice time.
16 SOG · 6 GP · PP1 — Guentzel has 16 shots in six games while playing with Hagel and Cirelli. First-unit power-play usage adds another opportunity to receive the puck near scoring areas against a Seattle team allowing 30.6 shots per game.
Hagel can take the finishing chances while Guentzel serves as a passer or screen. Few power plays can remove the extra possessions that would otherwise help him progress from two shots to three.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JAKE GUENTZEL OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Tampa Bay Lightning's 5 primary contributors.
| Tampa Bay Lightning Contributor | Oct 31 @ NAS | Nov 3 vs DET | Nov 5 vs CHI | Nov 7 @ MIN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel TB · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Nikita Kucherov TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| John Carlson TB · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Brayden Point TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jake Guentzel TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Jake Guentzel prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | SEA @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 8 | MIN @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+110) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Guentzel's sustained wing minutes and top-unit deployment support three shots against Seattle's elevated shot allowance.
Counter-Case: Hagel can take the finishing chances while Guentzel serves as a passer or screen. Few power plays can remove the extra possessions that would otherwise help him progress from two shots to three.
Guentzel's shooting history and first-unit power-play usage put three shots within his normal workload.
Counter-Case: Guentzel can facilitate Hagel's shooting rather than take the attempts himself. Minnesota may also block his power-play looks before they become shots on goal.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |