By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Brandon Hagel's shots on goal line at 2.5 for MIN @ TB (Oct 8). WagerBird's modeled fair line for MIN @ TB is 3.6 (-221).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN @ TB | 2.5 (-145) | — | 3 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +2.5 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+2.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 · @ NYR | 2.5 | — | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 3 · vs WAS | 3.5 | +1.0 | 6 | +2.5 |
| Oct 5 · vs PHI | 2.5 | -1.0 | 8 | +5.5 |
| Oct 8 · vs MIN | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
Hagel's established shooting volume and early-season activity support at least three shots.
214 SHOTS · 71 GAMES · 42 GAMES WITH 3+ — Hagel put 214 shots on goal last season and reached three in 42 of 71 games. His 19–21 projected minutes leave room for shooting chances across both even-strength and special-teams shifts.
17 SHOTS · 3 GAMES · MIN 29.39 SA/G — His first three games produced 17 shots, while Minnesota allowed approximately 29.39 shots per game last season. Working alongside Cirelli and Guentzel can keep him involved in repeated offensive-zone possessions.
An early Tampa Bay lead could reduce Hagel's late-game need to shoot. He can instead set up Cirelli or Guentzel, and missed or blocked attempts would not count as shots on goal.
Settlement Rule: CASHES BRANDON HAGEL OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST THREE SHOTS; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Tampa Bay Lightning's 5 primary contributors.
| Tampa Bay Lightning Contributor | Oct 31 @ NAS | Nov 3 vs DET | Nov 5 vs CHI | Nov 7 @ MIN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Brandon Hagel TB · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jake Guentzel TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Brayden Point TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| John Carlson TB · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Brandon Hagel prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | SEA @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+125) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | TB @ NYR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-160) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 8 | MIN @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-160) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Hagel's elevated ice time, substantial shooting share and first-unit power-play role provide multiple routes to four shots.
Counter-Case: Seattle can close Hagel's entry lanes and turn his slot possessions into passes. A Tampa Bay lead managed through slower possession can reduce his late shooting opportunities and leave him at three shots.
Hagel's expanded minutes and first-unit offensive deployment support enough individual attempts to reach three shots on goal.
Counter-Case: New York can push Hagel's shooting lanes toward blocks and force him to distribute to Guentzel instead. A Tampa lead can turn his late shifts into possession protection rather than repeated attempts on net.
Hagel's established shooting volume and early-season activity support at least three shots.
Counter-Case: An early Tampa Bay lead could reduce Hagel's late-game need to shoot. He can instead set up Cirelli or Guentzel, and missed or blocked attempts would not count as shots on goal.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |