By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 11 to Oct 15), Vince Dunn's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for SEA @ TB is 2.1 (-162).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ WAS | 1.5 (-140) | — | 2 | Over | |
| SEA @ PHI | 1.5 (-145) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| SEA @ TB | 1.5 (-125) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (-1.0) tracks actual window production (-0.3).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 · @ CGY | 2.5 | — | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 9 · @ DET | — | — | 2 | — |
| Oct 11 · @ WAS | 1.5 | -1.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Oct 13 · @ PHI | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +2.5 |
| Oct 15 · @ TB | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -0.5 |
Dunn's established point-shot volume and substantial defensive minutes support reaching a modest two-shot threshold.
179 SOG · 81 PRIOR GP — Dunn recorded 179 shots in 81 games last season, a stronger volume baseline than his current 12 shots in seven games. Repeated point touches give him a route to two shots without requiring a goal or a rush-heavy performance.
22:44 ATOI · PP2 · TAMPA BAY 23.8 SA/G — Dunn's Larsson pairing and PP2 assignment provide regular opportunities to receive the puck above the circles. His 22:44 average supplies time to accumulate attempts, although Tampa Bay's 23.8 shots allowed per game makes clean shooting lanes important.
Tampa Bay's forwards can block Dunn's point shots before they become shots on goal. Long Seattle defensive stretches can also consume his minutes without providing the two clean attempts needed.
Settlement Rule: CASHES VINCE DUNN OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 2 OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Seattle Kraken's 5 primary contributors.
| Seattle Kraken Contributor | Oct 28 vs TOR | Oct 30 @ CGY | Nov 4 vs CGY | Nov 7 vs NYR | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Montour SEA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Bobby McMann SEA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Vince Dunn SEA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Matty Beniers SEA · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jordan Eberle SEA · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Vince Dunn prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | SEA @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-138) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 1 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Dunn's established point-shot volume and substantial defensive minutes support reaching a modest two-shot threshold.
Counter-Case: Tampa Bay's forwards can block Dunn's point shots before they become shots on goal. Long Seattle defensive stretches can also consume his minutes without providing the two clean attempts needed.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |