By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 2 active games (Oct 10 to Oct 13), sportsbooks adjusted Brandon Hagel's posted shots on goal line downward in 1 of 1 game-over-game steps from 3.5 to 2.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for TB @ NYR is 3.5 (-217).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ NYI | 3.5 (+130) | — | 6 | Over | |
| TB @ NYR | 2.5 (-150) | -1.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +2.0 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+2.0 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 · @ NYR | 2.5 | — | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 3 · vs WAS | 3.5 | +1.0 | 6 | +2.5 |
| Oct 5 · vs PHI | 2.5 | -1.0 | 8 | +5.5 |
| Oct 8 · vs MIN | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ NYI | 3.5 | +1.0 | 6 | +2.5 |
| Oct 13 · @ NYR | 2.5 | -1.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
Hagel's expanded minutes and first-unit offensive deployment support enough individual attempts to reach three shots on goal.
26 SOG · 5 GAMES · 22:05 TOI — Hagel has taken 26 shots in five games while averaging 22:05, up from 19:46 last season. The additional ice time gives his established shooting tendency more opportunities to produce attempts that reach the goaltender.
PP1 · 17.22% TEAM SHOT SHARE — Hagel is projected with Guentzel and Cirelli and is listed on the first power-play unit. His calculated 17.22% share of Tampa's shots shows that those possessions are producing his own attempts, not only opportunities for teammates.
New York can push Hagel's shooting lanes toward blocks and force him to distribute to Guentzel instead. A Tampa lead can turn his late shifts into possession protection rather than repeated attempts on net.
Settlement Rule: CASHES BRANDON HAGEL OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 SHOTS ON GOAL; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Tampa Bay Lightning's 5 primary contributors.
| Tampa Bay Lightning Contributor | Oct 31 @ NAS | Nov 3 vs DET | Nov 5 vs CHI | Nov 7 @ MIN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel TB · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| John Carlson TB · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jake Guentzel TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Brayden Point TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Nikita Kucherov TB · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 3 settled Brandon Hagel prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | SEA @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 3.5 (+125) · Fanatics | 3.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 13 | TB @ NYR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-160) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 8 | MIN @ TB | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-160) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 3 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
Hagel's elevated ice time, substantial shooting share and first-unit power-play role provide multiple routes to four shots.
Counter-Case: Seattle can close Hagel's entry lanes and turn his slot possessions into passes. A Tampa Bay lead managed through slower possession can reduce his late shooting opportunities and leave him at three shots.
Hagel's expanded minutes and first-unit offensive deployment support enough individual attempts to reach three shots on goal.
Counter-Case: New York can push Hagel's shooting lanes toward blocks and force him to distribute to Guentzel instead. A Tampa lead can turn his late shifts into possession protection rather than repeated attempts on net.
Hagel's established shooting volume and early-season activity support at least three shots.
Counter-Case: An early Tampa Bay lead could reduce Hagel's late-game need to shoot. He can instead set up Cirelli or Guentzel, and missed or blocked attempts would not count as shots on goal.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |