By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 27), Damian Lillard's posted 3-pointers made line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for POR @ LAL is 3.7 (-102).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX @ POR | 2.5 (-142) | — | 6 | Over | |
| POR @ SAC | 3.5 (+144) | +1.0 | 2 | Under | |
| POR @ LAL | 2.5 (+146) | -1.0 | 4 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 2 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.5 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.5 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs PHX | 2.5 | — | 6 | +3.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ SAC | 3.5 | +1.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ LAL | 2.5 | -1.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
Lillard's sustained three-point attempt volume can reach the required makes without unusually accurate shooting.
10.0 3PA · 2 OF 10 LAST GAME — Lillard has averaged 10.0 three-point attempts and still took ten against Sacramento when only two fell. That willingness to keep shooting protects the attempt-based route even when the opening shots miss.
9.0 3PA · 37.6% IN 2024-25 — His last played season supplied 9.0 attempts per game at 37.6%. Sustaining the current volume at a similar conversion rate provides a path to the required makes without extending an exceptional hot streak.
Morant can absorb possessions that would otherwise become Lillard pull-ups, while perimeter pressure can force drives or passes. Fatigue, an early exit or a slower first half can leave him short of the necessary attempt volume.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DAMIAN LILLARD OVER 3.5 MADE THREES WITH AT LEAST FOUR MAKES · NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Portland Trail Blazers's 5 primary contributors.
| Portland Trail Blazers Contributor | Nov 2 @ DEN | Nov 4 @ PHX | Nov 6 @ LAL | Nov 7 vs SAS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija POR · Points | 22.5 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Damian Lillard POR · Points | 20.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Ja Morant POR · Points | — | — | — | — | -2.0 | — | Trending Down ↓ |
| Toumani Camara POR · Points | 12.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Jrue Holiday POR · Points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Damian Lillard prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | POR @ UTA | 3-Pointers Made | Over 3.5 (+140) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 27 | POR @ LAL | 3-Pointers Made | Over 3.5 (+146) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 4 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Lillard's retained attempt volume and added backcourt responsibility provide a credible path to four made threes.
Counter-Case: Utah can push Lillard away from perimeter attempts and make him create through drives and passes instead. Even with enough shots, an ordinary cold stretch can leave him short of four makes.
Lillard's sustained three-point attempt volume can reach the required makes without unusually accurate shooting.
Counter-Case: Morant can absorb possessions that would otherwise become Lillard pull-ups, while perimeter pressure can force drives or passes. Fatigue, an early exit or a slower first half can leave him short of the necessary attempt volume.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |