By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 5 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 31), sportsbooks adjusted Damian Lillard's posted 3-pointers made line upward in 2 of 4 game-over-game steps from 2.5 to 3.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for POR @ UTA is 3.7 (-102).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX @ POR | 2.5 (-142) | — | 6 | Over | |
| POR @ SAC | 3.5 (+144) | +1.0 | 2 | Under | |
| POR @ LAL | 2.5 (+146) | -1.0 | 4 | Over | |
| MEM @ POR | 2.5 (-165) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| POR @ UTA | 3.5 (+142) | +1.0 | 3 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (+1.0) tracks actual window production (+0.7).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs PHX | 2.5 | — | 6 | +3.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ SAC | 3.5 | +1.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ LAL | 2.5 | -1.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs MEM | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ UTA | 3.5 | +1.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
Lillard's retained attempt volume and added backcourt responsibility provide a credible path to four made threes.
9.3 3PA EARLY · 9 IN LATEST GAME — Lillard averaged 9.3 three-point attempts through his first three games and still took nine against Memphis despite making only one. The opportunity remained intact even when his shooting result deteriorated.
32 PROJECTED MIN · 10.0 PROJECTED 3PA — Morant is Out, and Portland's remaining backcourt is anchored by Lillard. Ten attempts at an assumed thirty-seven percent conversion produces the 3.7-make projection without carrying forward his early accuracy.
Utah can push Lillard away from perimeter attempts and make him create through drives and passes instead. Even with enough shots, an ordinary cold stretch can leave him short of four makes.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DAMIAN LILLARD OVER 3.5 MADE THREES WITH FOUR OR MORE MAKES; NO PUSH IS POSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Portland Trail Blazers's 5 primary contributors.
| Portland Trail Blazers Contributor | Nov 2 @ DEN | Nov 4 @ PHX | Nov 6 @ LAL | Nov 7 vs SAS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija POR · Points | 22.5 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Damian Lillard POR · Points | 20.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Scoot Henderson POR · Points | 13.5 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jrue Holiday POR · Points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Toumani Camara POR · Points | 12.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Damian Lillard prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | POR @ UTA | 3-Pointers Made | Over 3.5 (+140) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 27 | POR @ LAL | 3-Pointers Made | Over 3.5 (+146) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 4 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Lillard's retained attempt volume and added backcourt responsibility provide a credible path to four made threes.
Counter-Case: Utah can push Lillard away from perimeter attempts and make him create through drives and passes instead. Even with enough shots, an ordinary cold stretch can leave him short of four makes.
Lillard's sustained three-point attempt volume can reach the required makes without unusually accurate shooting.
Counter-Case: Morant can absorb possessions that would otherwise become Lillard pull-ups, while perimeter pressure can force drives or passes. Fatigue, an early exit or a slower first half can leave him short of the necessary attempt volume.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |