By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Toumani Camara's 3-pointers made line at 2.5 for POR @ LAL (Oct 27). WagerBird's modeled fair line for POR @ LAL is 2.7 (-103).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR @ LAL | 2.5 (+125) | — | 4 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.8 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.8 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs PHX | — | — | 4 | — |
| Oct 23 · @ SAC | — | — | 5 | — |
| Oct 27 · @ LAL | 2.5 | — | 4 | +1.5 |
Camara's perimeter-heavy shot diet can deliver the required makes even after his early shooting percentage falls.
8.5 3PA · 81.0% OF FGA — Camara has taken 8.5 threes out of 10.5 total shots per game. That concentration puts most of his scoring opportunities directly into this market rather than requiring additional touches inside the arc.
7.2 3PA · 37.0% · 82 GAMES — Last season Camara averaged 7.2 three-point attempts at 37.0% across 82 games. A similar attempt load can produce the necessary makes without preserving his much hotter early conversion rate.
Hard closeouts can convert Camara's spot-up opportunities into cuts or extra passes. Defensive foul trouble or a possession-poor first half can reduce the time and chances available to accumulate attempts.
Settlement Rule: CASHES TOUMANI CAMARA OVER 2.5 MADE THREES WITH AT LEAST THREE MAKES · NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Portland Trail Blazers's 5 primary contributors.
| Portland Trail Blazers Contributor | Nov 2 @ DEN | Nov 4 @ PHX | Nov 6 @ LAL | Nov 7 vs SAS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija POR · Points | 22.5 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Damian Lillard POR · Points | 20.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Ja Morant POR · Points | — | — | — | — | -2.0 | — | Trending Down ↓ |
| Toumani Camara POR · Points | 12.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Jrue Holiday POR · Points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Toumani Camara prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | POR @ LAL | 3-Pointers Made | Over 2.5 (+127) · DraftKings | 2.5 | 4 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Camara's perimeter-heavy shot diet can deliver the required makes even after his early shooting percentage falls.
Counter-Case: Hard closeouts can convert Camara's spot-up opportunities into cuts or extra passes. Defensive foul trouble or a possession-poor first half can reduce the time and chances available to accumulate attempts.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |