By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 27), Deni Avdija's posted rebounds line has held net flat at 6.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for POR @ LAL is 7.6 (-194).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX @ POR | 6.5 (+102) | — | 10 | Over | |
| POR @ SAC | 6.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 7 | Over | |
| POR @ LAL | 6.5 (-120) | 0.0 | 4 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs PHX | 6.5 | — | 10 | +3.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ SAC | 6.5 | 0.0 | 7 | +0.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ LAL | 6.5 | 0.0 | 4 | -2.5 |
Avdija's established rebounding rate and projected closing workload support enough collections to clear the threshold.
6.9 RPG · 11.2% PRIOR TRB RATE — Avdija averaged 6.9 rebounds with an 11.2% total rebound rate last season. His established share gives him a collection route even while Portland's centers compete for the same misses.
8.5 CURRENT RPG · 7 REB IN 38 MIN LAST GAME — Avdija has averaged 8.5 rebounds and collected seven during a 38-minute appearance against Sacramento. A closing workload allows him to keep pursuing available misses throughout a competitive game rather than relying on a brief rebounding burst.
Clingan and Robert Williams can secure the interior misses before Avdija reaches them. Efficient Lakers shooting or an emphasis on leaking into transition can further reduce his collection opportunities.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DENI AVDIJA OVER 6.5 REBOUNDS WITH AT LEAST SEVEN REBOUNDS · NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Portland Trail Blazers's 5 primary contributors.
| Portland Trail Blazers Contributor | Nov 2 @ DEN | Nov 4 @ PHX | Nov 6 @ LAL | Nov 7 vs SAS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija POR · Points | 22.5 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Damian Lillard POR · Points | 20.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Ja Morant POR · Points | — | — | — | — | -2.0 | — | Trending Down ↓ |
| Toumani Camara POR · Points | 12.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Jrue Holiday POR · Points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Deni Avdija prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | POR @ LAL | Rebounds | Over 6.5 (-114) · ProphetX | 6.5 | 4 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Avdija's established rebounding rate and projected closing workload support enough collections to clear the threshold.
Counter-Case: Clingan and Robert Williams can secure the interior misses before Avdija reaches them. Efficient Lakers shooting or an emphasis on leaking into transition can further reduce his collection opportunities.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |