By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 3 active games (Oct 21 to Oct 27), Jrue Holiday's posted assists line has held net flat at 3.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for POR @ LAL is 4.3 (-165).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX @ POR | 3.5 (-115) | — | 1 | Under | |
| POR @ SAC | 3.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 8 | Over | |
| POR @ LAL | 3.5 (-120) | 0.0 | 3 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs PHX | 3.5 | — | 1 | -2.5 |
| Oct 23 · @ SAC | 3.5 | 0.0 | 8 | +4.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ LAL | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3 | -0.5 |
Holiday's creation role can produce the required assists without an increase in his scoring workload.
4.5 AST · 23.5 MIN — Holiday has averaged 4.5 assists in 23.5 minutes while coming off the bench. Those touches give him a route to the threshold without needing starter-level minutes or a larger scoring share.
6.1 AST · 29.4 MIN LAST SEASON — Holiday averaged 6.1 assists in 29.4 minutes last season and delivered eight in 26 minutes against Sacramento. His passing can remain productive even when the other guards absorb a substantial share of possessions.
Lillard and Morant can keep control of the final pass, leaving Holiday to space the floor. Missed jumpers or a possession-poor first half can erase otherwise useful passing opportunities.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JRUE HOLIDAY OVER 3.5 ASSISTS WITH AT LEAST FOUR ASSISTS · NO PUSH ON THE HALF.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Portland Trail Blazers's 5 primary contributors.
| Portland Trail Blazers Contributor | Nov 2 @ DEN | Nov 4 @ PHX | Nov 6 @ LAL | Nov 7 vs SAS | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija POR · Points | 22.5 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 22.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Damian Lillard POR · Points | 20.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 20.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Ja Morant POR · Points | — | — | — | — | -2.0 | — | Trending Down ↓ |
| Toumani Camara POR · Points | 12.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Jrue Holiday POR · Points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ |
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Jrue Holiday prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | POR @ LAL | Assists | Over 3.5 (+110) · FanDuel | 3.5 | 3 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Holiday's creation role can produce the required assists without an increase in his scoring workload.
Counter-Case: Lillard and Morant can keep control of the final pass, leaving Holiday to space the floor. Missed jumpers or a possession-poor first half can erase otherwise useful passing opportunities.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |