By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 8), sportsbooks adjusted Cade Cunningham's posted assists line upward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 8.5 to 9.5 (+1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for LAL @ DET is 8.3 (-194).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ NYK | 8.5 (+102) | — | 8 | Under | |
| CHA @ DET | 8.5 (-111) | 0.0 | 7 | Under | |
| DET @ BKN | 9.5 (+108) | +1.0 | 4 | Under | |
| DET @ CHA | 8.5 (-111) | -1.0 | 7 | Under | |
| PHI @ DET | 8.5 (+105) | 0.0 | 11 | Over | |
| LAL @ DET | 9.5 (+128) | +1.0 | — | Fair 8.3 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted +1.0 vs. -1.1 actual output delta (-2.1 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · @ NYK | 8.5 | — | 8 | -0.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs CHA | 8.5 | 0.0 | 7 | -1.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ BKN | 9.5 | +1.0 | 4 | -5.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ CHA | 8.5 | -1.0 | 7 | -1.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs PHI | 8.5 | 0.0 | 11 | +2.5 |
| Nov 8 · vs LAL | 9.5 | +1.0 | — | — |
Cunningham can run Detroit's offense effectively without reaching double-digit assists.
7.6 AST · 33.4 MIN · 8 GAMES — Cunningham's passing production leaves room for additional minutes without requiring a double-digit finish. A longer stint can add scoring possessions as well as passing chances.
JENKINS 4.4 AST · THOMPSON 4.7 AST — Detroit has secondary handlers capable of completing the final pass after the initial action. Their involvement allows productive team offense without every assisted basket being credited to Cunningham.
Aggressive Lakers help can turn Cunningham's drives into repeated passes to open shooters and interior finishers. Robinson's shot-making or clean finishes from Reed and Collins could turn ordinary creation into a large assist total.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH CADE CUNNINGHAM RECORDING NINE OR FEWER ASSISTS; NO PUSH AT 9.5.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Detroit Pistons's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-20.2 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 92.3 vs. 112.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85.0 | 92.1% | 92.3 | 112.5 (-115) | -20.2 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Cade Cunningham DET · Prev 24.5 (0.0) | 24.5 | 28.1% | 21.8%(-6.3% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Duncan Robinson DET · Prev 14.5 (+1.0) | 15.5 | 20.8% | 13.8%(-7.0% vs Hist) | +4.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#3 Paul Reed DET · Prev 12.5 (+1.0) | 13.5 | 14.0% | 12.0%(-2.0% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#4 John Collins DET · Prev 11.5 (0.0) | 11.5 | 8.4% | 10.2%(+1.8% vs Hist) | -4.0 | Steady Share | |
#5 Ausar Thompson DET · Prev 10.5 (0.0) | 10.5 | 10.6% | 9.3%(-1.3% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share | |
#6 Daniss Jenkins DET · Prev 9.5 (0.0) | 9.5 | 10.2% | 8.4%(-1.8% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share |
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 2 settled Cade Cunningham prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | LAL @ DET | Assists | Under 9.5 (-137) · Kalshi | 9.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 30 | DET @ BKN | Assists | Under 9.5 (-105) · Fanatics | 9.5 | 4 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 20 | BOS @ DET | Assists | Over 8.5 (-122) · FanDuel | 8.5 | 8 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
Cunningham's current assist rate and Detroit's secondary creation keep the central expectation below ten.
Counter-Case: Brooklyn can give up clean finishes and open jumpers that turn Cunningham's passes into assists at an elevated rate. A close finish or overtime can extend his workload, and strong shooting from Robinson can push the assist total past the threshold.
Cunningham's dominant creation role keeps a high assist total attainable even in a slower matchup.
Counter-Case: Boston can contest the receiving shooters well enough that Cunningham's good passes do not become assists. Coverage that invites his own scoring, or a reduced interior finishing workload for Duren, can also keep the distribution total short.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |