By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 8), sportsbooks adjusted Duncan Robinson's posted points line upward in 4 of 5 game-over-game steps from 11.5 to 15.5 (+4.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for LAL @ DET is 17.6 (-173).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ NYK | 11.5 (-125) | — | 12 | Over | |
| CHA @ DET | 12.5 (-125) | +1.0 | 13 | Over | |
| DET @ BKN | 13.5 (-104) | +1.0 | 17 | Over | |
| DET @ CHA | 13.5 (-110) | 0.0 | 24 | Over | |
| PHI @ DET | 14.5 (+108) | +1.0 | 27 | Over | |
| LAL @ DET | 15.5 (-105) | +1.0 | — | Fair 17.6 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +7.1 vs. +4.0 book step adjustment (+3.1 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · @ NYK | 11.5 | — | 12 | +0.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs CHA | 12.5 | +1.0 | 13 | +0.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ BKN | 13.5 | +1.0 | 17 | +3.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ CHA | 13.5 | 0.0 | 24 | +10.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs PHI | 14.5 | +1.0 | 27 | +12.5 |
| Nov 8 · vs LAL | 15.5 | +1.0 | — | — |
Robinson's expanded shooting and foul-line volume can sustain his scoring even with shooting regression.
11.9 FGA · 9.1 3PA · 31.0 MIN — Robinson is receiving enough attempts for his scoring to survive some missed perimeter shots. His movement forces defenders to follow him through actions rather than merely contest a stationary spot-up opportunity.
20.7% USG · 4.0 FTA — His offensive involvement extends beyond an occasional catch-and-shoot possession. Trips to the foul line provide another scoring route when the Lakers disrupt the initial shooting action.
The Lakers can chase Robinson away from clean catches and direct the possession toward other finishers. If his perimeter attempts fail, limited scoring inside the arc may not replace those missing points.
Settlement Rule: CASHES WITH DUNCAN ROBINSON SCORING 16 OR MORE POINTS; NO PUSH AT 15.5.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Detroit Pistons's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
-20.2 Pts Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 92.3 vs. 112.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85.0 | 92.1% | 92.3 | 112.5 (-115) | -20.2 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Cade Cunningham DET · Prev 24.5 (0.0) | 24.5 | 28.1% | 21.8%(-6.3% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Duncan Robinson DET · Prev 14.5 (+1.0) | 15.5 | 20.8% | 13.8%(-7.0% vs Hist) | +4.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#3 Paul Reed DET · Prev 12.5 (+1.0) | 13.5 | 14.0% | 12.0%(-2.0% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#4 John Collins DET · Prev 11.5 (0.0) | 11.5 | 8.4% | 10.2%(+1.8% vs Hist) | -4.0 | Steady Share | |
#5 Ausar Thompson DET · Prev 10.5 (0.0) | 10.5 | 10.6% | 9.3%(-1.3% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share | |
#6 Daniss Jenkins DET · Prev 9.5 (0.0) | 9.5 | 10.2% | 8.4%(-1.8% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Steady Share |
1 active Duncan Robinson prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | LAL @ DET | Points | Over 15.5 (-102) · ProphetX | 15.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 75 | 11 | 39 |